Ethereum ($ETH) It has seen a notable recovery over the past week, briefly surpassing the $1,800 mark as overall crypto market sentiment improves.
The second-largest cryptocurrency rose about 10% during the period, driven by new buying activity across derivatives markets.
The main driving force behind the rebound is the upturn in Ethereum’s net taker volume. Net taker volume is a measure of the difference between buying and selling activity in the market. $ETH perpetual futures market.
Positive values indicate that buyers are in control of trading activity, while negative values indicate strong selling pressure.
However, the stock has not been able to sustain the price above $1,800, and could post further losses in the short term.
Ethereum’s previous decline from May to the end of June coincided with the index turning negative.
Since turning into positive territory on June 28th, $ETH is up nearly 14%, highlighting the shift in near-term market sentiment.
Derivatives markets show cautious optimism
Despite the recent price recovery, derivatives data suggests that traders are not actively increasing leveraged positions.
While Ethereum’s open interest (OI) has remained relatively unchanged throughout the rally, the estimated leverage ratio, which compares futures open interest to foreign exchange reserves, has yet to recover significantly after falling in June.
This shows that Ethereum’s recent rally was driven primarily by spot demand rather than overleverage.
As a result, this rally appears to be less vulnerable to corrections due to sharp liquidations.
However, the slow leverage growth reflects persistent caution among bullish traders, many of whom appear hesitant to commit to larger long positions until the market confirms a stronger uptrend.
Market sentiment in the US also strengthened after weaker-than-expected US labor market data released last week.
The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks demand from U.S. investors, remains below zero, but has rebounded significantly from the sharply negative levels it hit in early July.
This improvement suggests that selling pressure from US-based traders is gradually easing.
Demand from institutional investors is also showing positive signs.
Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. posted net inflows for the fourth consecutive trading session, reflecting renewed investor interest, according to CoinGlass. $ETH.
Ethereum technical outlook: 50-day EMA remains a major barrier
On the daily chart, $ETH It remains below the major moving averages.
According to the Liquidations Heatmap, Ethereum recorded approximately $76.2 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours, of which $47.6 million was due to long positions.
The large number of long-term liquidations reflects traders being forced to close out bullish bets. $ETH It got lower.
Still, Ethereum’s broad technical structure remains challenging.
On the 4 hour chart, $ETH remains below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $1,806 and 100-day EMA of $1,970, indicating that the medium-term trend has not yet turned definitively bullish.
Momentum indicators show different situations. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, suggesting momentum is improving without entering overbought territory.
Meanwhile, the MACD line is also within neutral territory, indicating trader indecision.
Ethereum’s first major resistance level is near $1,806, with the 50-day EMA coinciding with a major horizontal resistance zone.
If buyers are able to break above this level, attention will shift to $1,909, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1,970.
Additional resistance levels are located near $2,018, $2,108, and $2,211, each representing a potential obstacle to a sustained bullish breakout.
On the downside, immediate support is located near $1,741, followed by the 20-day EMA at $1,713.
When selling pressure increases, $ETH While there is a possibility of retesting the lower support levels around $1,524 and $1,405, $1,156 remains a key long-term support area if a broader correction resumes.
