Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on Monday as oil rose and stock futures fell following another U.S. attack on Iran.
The strike and Bitcoin’s decline happened at the same time, but that’s not the whole story. Thin trading over the weekend, the flow of funds, and the sell-off peculiar to virtual currencies also had an impact.
After hitting a low of $62,565 early Monday, Bitcoin fell about 1.9% in 24 hours to around $62,774, according to igcurrencynews market data.
This pushed Bitcoin’s price much closer to $60,000 than before the weekend, when Bitcoin traded near $64,000 despite the new dispute.
U.S. Central Command said the attack began at 5 p.m. ET on July 12 and targeted Iran’s ability to attack civilian sailors and commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. An Associated Press report confirmed the new attack as the U.S. government and Tehran vie for control of the waterway.
Why oil trends matter for Bitcoin
Brent crude rose 4.7% to $79.59 per barrel, while U.S. crude rose 4.8% to $74.85 per barrel. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, Dow futures fell 0.4% and Nasdaq futures fell 1.3%.
Yields on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries also remained firm. The dollar level rose 0.1%, the two-year Treasury yield stood at 4.23% and the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.58%, according to Bloomberg data shared by swissinfo.ch.
Oil at around $80 is keeping the flames of inflation alive, giving the dollar and borrowing costs room to rise. Bitcoin needs to compete with more attractive alternatives such as cash and bonds as investors retreat from risk.
Prediction markets are already pricing in moves that make sense for both sides. The market is pricing in a 57.5% chance that Bitcoin will reach $60,000 in July and a 65% chance of it reaching $65,000. It is possible to reach both levels in the same month, so the probabilities overlap.
A sustained break below the intraday low of $62,565 would remove the market’s nearest cushion. If that happens while Brent prices stay around $80, the dollar and yields continue to rise, and equity futures widen losses, a $60,000 test becomes more likely.
A contrary signal would be a recovery above the local high of $64,300, with oil prices easing and stock futures stabilizing. This would suggest that Monday’s move was a new range test rather than a complete breakdown.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
