Institutional demand for Bitcoin will once again be strong, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. Analysts believe that the US spot $BTC The ETF could follow the “wins and pains” pattern of gold ETFs and eventually reach new all-time highs.
Gold ETFs were briefly the world’s largest ETFs in 2011, but they trended downward for another eight years to regain that spot, Balciunas added.
There was another brief recovery in 2024, but a similar “two steps forward, one step back” is likely. $BTC.
Bitcoin ETFs could be following the same scenario: stunning gains, painful drawdowns and recoveries that could test investors’ patience.
Spot Bitcoin ETF remains strong, but…
Bitcoin’s price has almost halved from over $126,000 to $64,000. Spots for May and June 2026 $BTC ETF outflows reached $7 billion as crypto assets briefly fell below $60,000.
Still only 10% of spots $BTC Balciunas emphasized that ETF holders remain, compared to one-third of gold ETF investors.
Another positive sign is that $BTC It may show resilience and try to protect the $60,000 support provided by long-term holders (LTH). they have, but gradually reduce exposure Over the past few weeks, this cohort has not yet been a net seller.
According to Bitfinex analysts: $BTC‘s recent decline of less than $60,000 was due to deleveraging and ETF outflows as the LTH conviction was still intact. But analysts warned:
Their 30-day net position remained positive as the ETF lost nearly $4 billion in June. Flow has now turned positive for three consecutive sessions. The risk is that LTH will eventually become a net seller.
However, the two safe havens are not attracting strong investor interest, as they were earlier this year, as relations between the United States and Iran become tense again. Over the past three months, gold ETFs have seen outflows of approximately $11 billion in the spot market. $BTC ETFs lost $6 billion. In other words, twice as much gold has flown out. $BTC.
It is unknown whether $BTC If the crisis in West Asia extends into the third quarter, it will attract more capital and act as a hedge.
However, the rise in oil prices above $80 Bitcoin ($BTC)of The sideways structure below $65,000 indicates that energy market shocks can still derail the cryptocurrency’s upside.
Final summary
- Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas predicts US spot $BTC Citing gold’s historical pattern, ETFs will soar to all-time highs
- In the meantime, there is a possibility that it will reach a plateau due to rising oil prices $BTCPotential upside amid new escalation in West Asia
