Arthur Hayes doesn’t deal with vague timelines. Speaking at the Cointelegraph booth at Bitcoin Vegas, the BitMEX co-founder laid out a concrete outlook for Bitcoin returning to six digits after the Northern Hemisphere summer.
“I think it will reach $100,000 by the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer, mainly because the liquidity situation for the dollar is improving,” Hayes said.
His reasoning is macro rather than technical. War loans through commercial banks in the United States and other countries are injecting liquidity into the system in a way that is beginning to show up in the performance of risk assets. He argued that as a result of this move, Bitcoin has already started outperforming the Nasdaq and US tech stocks, and he expects that outperformance to continue into the fall.
Asked whether there is a chance of new all-time highs this year, Hayes was cautiously bullish. “I think we can hit $125,000 by the end of the year.”
Iranian variables
Hayes acknowledged the Iran conflict was a major risk to his schedule, but said the market had already avoided it. He pointed to the spread in oil prices as evidence that enough supply is moving through the Strait of Hormuz to prevent a complete collapse, even as politicians publicly position the situation as unresolved.
“Assuming the Iran war is not going to turn into chaos, I think the market is missing out on that,” he said. “Despite what politicians say is coming, there is enough coming into the streets.”
where does he spend his money
Hayes recently bought over $1 million in HyperLiquid, calling it the only altcoin that really matters right now. His argument is simple. Real customers are spending real money on the platform, generating real revenue, and returning value to token holders through buybacks and staking rewards. He completely dismissed everything else, including Dogecoin as a seasonal indicator for altcoins.
“If you’re not doing any of those things, I don’t care about you,” he said.
