Ethereum is trying to recover from an early June drop, but the rebound is being rejected by a technically important area of resistance. While short-term momentum remains constructive, both the daily structure and the Coinbase Premium Index suggest that buyers still have work to do before confirming a broader trend reversal.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart
Looking at the daily chart, $ETH It is trading around $1.74,000 after rebounding from the key demand zone of $1.5,000. This area once again attracted buyers, leading to a sharp recovery and allowing the asset to once again attack the $1.85,000 area.
Despite the rebound, Ethereum is still below the long-term downtrend line that has been capped since last year. The recovery has also stalled below the $1.85,000 resistance, which is roughly in line with the trendline and is the first major hurdle buyers need to overcome.
Adding to the bearishness on the higher timeframe, the price is trading below both the 100-day moving average and the 200-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average sitting fairly high near $2.2,000. This indicates that despite the recent recovery, the overall trend remains bearish.
A decisive daily close above the $1,85,000 resistance could trigger a move towards the next supply zone around $2,000 to $2,2,000, where the moving averages are also present. Until then, the current advance looks more like a recovery within a larger downtrend rather than a solid trend reversal. On the downside, a loss of the $1.5,000 support would expose the market to an even deeper decline and an overextension of the bearish trend.
$ETH/USDT 4 hour chart
The 4-hour chart highlights an improving short-term market structure following a strong impulsive rally from the $1.5,000 area. $ETH It has successfully reclaimed the previous short-term high near $1.6,000 and is currently acting as support for the bullish order block after the breakout.
The latest price action shows that Ethereum is firming below the $1.85,000 resistance zone after failing to extend higher. While recent candlesticks have shown modest profit-taking, the RSI has cooled from overbought conditions and fallen toward the midline, suggesting that the bullish momentum has weakened in the short term without completely disappearing.
As long as the price remains above the $1.65,000 order block, the current decline appears to be a healthy correction within the ongoing recovery. A successful breakout above $1.85,000 will likely pave the way to the psychological $2,000 area.
However, failure to defend $1.65,000 could shift momentum back in favor of sellers and increase the likelihood that the $1.5,000 support area will be retested.
sentiment analysis
The Coinbase Premium Index continues to provide a cautious backdrop. The indicator remains below the neutral zero line, with the latest reading around -0.07, indicating: $ETH Coinbase still trades at a discount compared to other major exchanges.
Historically, sustained positive numbers reflect increased buying activity among US-based institutional investors. In contrast, the current negative premium suggests that despite Ethereum’s recent rally, institutional demand remains relatively subdued.
The chart also shows that attempts to establish a sustained positive premium have repeatedly failed in recent months, suggesting that rallies generally lack consistent institutional accumulation. While the index’s recent recovery suggests that conditions are improving, it has not yet returned to positive territory, making it difficult to argue that large U.S. buyers are back in earnest.
For a broader recovery to gain more confidence, a break above the $1.85,000 resistance with the Coinbase Premium Index returning to positive territory would provide stronger confirmation that institutional demand is starting to support this rally. Until then, Ethereum’s recovery looks positive, but it remains technically vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
