Renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has issued an important warning to his followers by comparing Bitcoin (BTC)’s current movement to past cycles in his latest analysis that addresses years of market uncertainty. Cowen argues that the current market structure is a combination of two different eras.
Structurally, Bitcoin represents a less volatile replica of the 2018 bear market, Cowen said, but from a macroeconomic, liquidity, and cyclical perspective, it resembles the period of “malaise and stagnation” (apathy) of 2019-2020.
Benjamin Cowen stated that Bitcoin price movements in 2026 will perfectly mirror the 2018 bear market. Analysts explained this similarity:
- Bitcoin hit local lows in both February 2018 and February 2026.
- Both periods saw even higher lows in late March and early April.
- In May, the bears were rejected from the resistance band and the peak value was lowered.
- From late June to early July, the lows from February were wiped out (a liquidity cleanse was implemented).
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Cowen argued that following the current recovery in July, Bitcoin could retest the resistance bands in late July or early August, but that it is historically perfectly normal for these rallies to reverse in August and September.
Cowen once again warned about altcoins and reflected on the 2018 cycle. Although Bitcoin recovered in July from its June lows and held the $6,000 level as support until November, the altcoin market suffered significant value losses and “melted away,” he said.
The analyst said that risk appetite remains low this quarter, with no capital flowing into altcoins.
Cowen believes the 2018 pattern will break towards the end of the year. In 2018, Bitcoin reached a true market bottom in December. However, because this cycle’s peak occurred earlier than the previous cycle (October), Cowen predicts that the market trough could also be earlier, perhaps in late September or early October.
The analyst added that Bitcoin is stuck between the 200-week moving average and the bear market resistance band, and a final downside cleansing wave may be needed to completely reset on-chain data and start a new bull market.
*This is not investment advice.
