Bitcoin has entered the late stages of its ongoing bear market, potentially forming a long-term market bottom.
Specifically, this month’s recent decline to around $57,000 could put it on par with the $16,000 to $18,000 lows seen at the end of 2022 this cycle. On-chain data suggests that a bottoming process is underway, but no significant confirmation signals have emerged yet.
Why $58,000 could mark the bottom of this cycle
Market watcher Seth said there are increasing signs that Bitcoin’s high time frame (HTF) macro bottom is already in place. “There are signs that the HTF macro bottom is in. $58,000 is the new $18,000,” he wrote on X.
Seth pointed out that he has pinpointed Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market bottom at $16,000. He said he would not be surprised if Bitcoin reestablished another low price cycle.
After bottoming out in 2022, Bitcoin steadily rose. It reached approximately $73,650 in March 2024, and rose to an all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.
Bitcoin rebounds from July lows
Notably, Bitcoin fell to $57,747 on July 1st, its lowest level this cycle. It then recovered to about $64,600 by July 5th.
As of today, Bitcoin is trading at $63,872, up about 4% over the past week. However, it is still down 27% since the beginning of the year and remains about 49.4% below its all-time high in October 2025. This suggests that recovery is still incomplete.
Glassnode: Bottom is forming, but confirmation is still lacking
In a recent study, Glassnode stated that Bitcoin remains in “deep value” territory despite trading below both the true market average and short-term holder cost metrics for nearly five months.
The analytics firm said long-term holders (LTH) selling has intensified. Losses now account for 43% of total realized value, with realized losses reaching about $280 million per day, the highest level since December 2022.
Glassnode’s chart also shows that over 5.5 million BTC held by long-term investors are currently in losses. Similar levels were seen near the bottoms of major markets during past bear markets before Bitcoin started to recover.
However, demand remains weak. The Spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see net outflows, but its daily trading volume is between $650 million and $950 million, about 80% below its October 2025 peak.
At the same time, the derivatives market became slightly more optimistic. Although the put/call ratio has fallen to its lowest level in 2026, options traders are still pricing in downside risk.
In summary, Glassnode said that Bitcoin may be in the final stages of forming a market bottom. However, he added that the selling by long-term holders would need to ease for a sustained recovery to be seen.
