Bitcoin prices held above $62,000 after renewed fighting between the US and Iran disrupted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, pushed up oil prices and reignited inflation concerns across global markets.
data from crypto slate The largest digital asset was trading near $63,000 on Thursday, indicating it is above the $60,000 level that traders have been eyeing since last month’s decline.
The move comes as new U.S. attacks on Iranian targets and retaliatory attacks by Tehran raise the risk of widespread disruption to energy flows from the Persian Gulf.
Brent crude oil rose 5.2% to settle at $78.02 per barrel on Wednesday, its highest closing price since June 19, after briefly peaking above $80 during the session. U.S. crude oil also rose, but stocks were mixed and bond markets reflected renewed concerns that rising energy costs could keep inflation high.
The oil-related movement has reached a difficult stage for Bitcoin. While digital assets are stabilizing from June’s pain, they have yet to generate the sustained demand needed to dampen the rebound from the macro shock.
Higher oil prices could fuel inflation expectations, push up yields and reduce the likelihood of monetary easing, all of which tend to weigh on speculative assets.
Bitcoin is therefore caught between two forces. Support near $60,000 and another energy shock that could put the Federal Reserve back at the center of the trade.
Strait of Hormuz traffic slowdown rekindles oil and Fed risks
The escalation comes as the United States struck targets in Iran for the second day in a row, after the US government said a commercial ship had been attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian media reported explosions along the country’s southern coast and said Iranian-controlled islands in the Gulf had been attacked. Iran’s Ministry of Health announced that 14 people have died in the past two nights.
President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the US airstrike was in retaliation for the attack on the ship and warned that further action by Iran would result in a stronger response.
The exchange quickly shifted to the energy market, as the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important routes for the transportation of oil and liquefied natural gas.
Four oil and LNG tankers tried to pass through the waterway but turned back, including three empty LNG vessels bound for Qatar’s Ras Laffan export terminal, Reuters reported.
Bloomberg, citing data from Kpler, reported that traffic fell sharply on Thursday. Only one tanker was seen passing through the strait alongside an Iranian container ship earlier in the day. No traffic was detected in the corridor near Oman. The corridor was a route used by ships seeking to avoid Iranian-controlled waters.
This slowdown marked a sharp reversal from recent trends. Bloomberg reported that 14 supply ships passed through on Wednesday, compared to an average of 34 tanker crossings a day in the three weeks since the ceasefire.
Even without formal closures, reduced traffic could tighten energy markets. With the risk of further attacks remaining high, shipowners may avoid the route, insurers may raise costs and buyers may seek alternative cargo.
Ole Hansen, head of product strategy at Saxo Bank, said the disruption showed the Strait was not completely back to normal even after the ceasefire. he said:
“This disruption is a reminder that the Strait never fully reopened and the recent dissolution of the geopolitical risk premium may have been premature.”
The economic slowdown has helped push oil prices higher, reversing some of the easing that came with last month’s ceasefire. Oil prices fell after the United States and Iran agreed to halt attacks and resume talks, easing concerns that Persian Gulf exports would continue to be constrained.
Recent fighting has put pressure on that assumption. Brent crude rose as traders priced in new supply risks from the Middle East. Separately, Russia’s diesel export ban added pressure to global fuel markets.
Meanwhile, movements in crude oil prices are also complicating the outlook for interest rates. Markets were leaning on the view that slower inflation and slower growth would eventually give the Federal Reserve more room to ease policy. If oil stays near $80 or even rises further, this view will be difficult to sustain.
The rally in Brent bonds prompted investors to receive fresh inflation warnings, short-term interest rates rose and traders priced in the risk of further tightening by major central banks, Reuters reported.
Hansen said higher oil prices raise the risk that inflation will remain high for an extended period of time, while recent weakness in U.S. employment data could prevent the Fed from moving quickly to raise interest rates again.
As a result, the market will be faced with a less favorable mix of risk assets. Rising energy prices could raise transportation and production costs, put pressure on consumers, and make it harder for policymakers to justify accommodative monetary policies.
Bitcoin’s resilience at $62,000 has limits
This change in interest rate outlook will put Bitcoin’s ability to sustain above $62,000 under increased scrutiny. Because just as digital assets are poised to rebuild demand, soaring energy prices could leave financial conditions tight.
Current price trends for top cryptocurrencies suggest that sellers have not yet been forced into a deep break after a difficult June, when weak capital demand, increased exchange supply, and tight liquidity weighed on the market.
Instead, BTC remains above $60,000, even as oil prices rise and traders reassess the risk of rising long-term interest rates.
Analysts at CryptoQuant said the above-average annual rise in Brent crude is historically consistent with tough conditions for Bitcoin. This relationship is not automatic, but continued rises in oil prices can raise inflation expectations, push yields higher and pull capital away from riskier assets.
そのため、ビットコインは6月に市場を襲ったのと同じマクロ圧力にさらされることになる。 Geopolitical shocks may strengthen some arguments against rare assets, but Bitcoin has not traded in a manner consistent with gold during periods of stress.その価格は依然として流動性、ポジショニング、金融政策への期待と密接に関係しています。
したがって、ホルムズ海峡における次の動きは、仮想通貨市場の短期的な方向性を形作る可能性がある。 A recovery in tanker traffic would alleviate some of the oil risk premium, easing pressure on yields and allowing traders to refocus on Bitcoin’s unique drivers, such as exchange-traded fund flows, leverage, and spot demand.
しかし、減速が長引くとプレッシャーがかかり続けることになる。 Brent sustaining near or rising above $80 will always keep inflation concerns front and center for investors, especially if diesel and LNG markets remain tight.
This would increase the risk that the Fund would reduce its exposure to assets that are dependent on easy liquidity conditions.
After all, Bitcoin holding above $62,000 indicates that the market is not yet treating the new conflict as a reason to sell aggressively. But that level is not a clear lower bound, as oil prices are still rising and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
