“Sell in May and be gone” is a common saying in financial markets, but renowned analyst Marlin the Trader has outlined a historical pattern that could be even more painful for financial markets. $BTC now.
His targets are quite alarming, with a worst-case scenario predicting a significant drop to $33,000.
Another 60% drop soon?
Crypto $BTC Further crashes are possible. The latest to jump on the bear bandwagon was Marlin the Trader, who pointed out that cryptocurrencies have significantly underperformed in the past three midterm elections, including this one.
According to his data, assets fell 61% in 2014, 65% in 2018 and 66% four years ago. He warned, “3 cycles. 3 dumps. Zero exceptions.” If this pattern continues into the current medium-term fiscal year, $BTC It could plummet to $33,000.
There are several factors that could be bullish at the moment, including the push for the CLARITY Act and some agreements between the U.S. and China, but “the calendar was never wrong,” Merlein added.
The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history.
No one wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect.
Midterm election year. Bitcoin dump. every time.2014: Released in May. -61%.
2018: Released in May. -65%.
2022: Released in May. -66%.3 cycles. 3 dumps. There are zero exceptions.
2026… pic.twitter.com/jErVlpY4BZ
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) May 17, 2026
Or maybe just $45,000
In another post, Merlin talked about another historical pattern that Bitcoin may be currently imitating: the 2021 phase. at that time, $BTC They too experienced similar price fluctuations that ultimately led to a larger crash. He outlined six steps that cryptocurrencies went through at the time, and said that the asset may now be in the accumulation stage (step 4).
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If so, $BTC It may be on the verge of further decline. However, this scenario is a little less bearish, as Merlijn’s target is between $45,000 and $59,000. Key to the deployment of this setup is $78,000 of support, which is currently being tested.
if $BTC Losing that level can make you fall into Merlin’s target. However, if you can stick with it, you can skip step 4 and may be closer to execution than you expected.
