Bitcoin (BTC) has been volatile over the past few months, and prediction markets aren’t completely convinced that the flagship cryptocurrency will hit a new all-time high (ATH) by December 31st.
So, according to data from crypto-based prediction market Polymarket as of December 9, only 1% of individuals betting on the platform currently believe Bitcoin can rise to $130,000, above the $126,000 ATH it reached in October of this year.
But interestingly, the 1% who believe the stock could reach new highs are betting nearly $10 million on the $130,000 price target. Also worth noting is the 3x bet that Bitcoin price will crash to $65,000. This price hasn’t been seen since October of last year, but only $392,000 has been wagered here.
The majority of traders (61%) think Bitcoin will rise to at most $95,000 by the end of the year, but bet volume is lower again, approaching $581,000.
Data suggests that some of the more bullish Bitcoin bets began to decline rapidly just before November, when the last rays of hope for the “Uptober” began to fade.
For example, the cryptocurrency market set odds of Bitcoin charging $130,000 on October 27th at 56%, which at the time was only 8% lower than when betting began. But by the time this article was published, they had plummeted to virtually negligible levels.
Bitcoin price outlook
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is down nearly 2% on the daily chart, but remains above $90,000.
The broader crypto market also fell 1.85% ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision and a technical decline in “digital gold.” Polymarket The bet looks much more reasonable.
The asset fell below its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of $92,383 and was rejected at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $94,044, suggesting weakening momentum.
Failure to recover $92,000 could confirm a bearish pennant pattern towards the $86,000 target or even below $80,000, with a 31% probability based on the data reviewed above.
Featured image via Shutterstock
