Bitcoin hit $77,711 during the day before recovering to near $78,225, continuing to trade under macro stress for a second straight day as U.S. Treasury yields hover near multi-month highs.
The yield on the 10-year note reached 4.599%, and the yield on the 30-year note rose 11.8 basis points to 5.131%, the highest level since May 2025. $BTC is down 3.9% from its May 15 opening price of over $81,000, with stocks and bonds also falling in parallel due to similar movements.
The $77,700 to $78,000 zone is already the next support shelf. $BTC It failed at less than $82,000 and now carries the full weight of its macro test.
macro weight
As a non-profitable asset, $BTC It currently competes directly with the Treasury complex, which pays 4.5% to 5.1%, and the floor interest rate at these levels increases the opportunity cost of holding.
According to K33 data, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures is above 0.7. $BTCWhen the Nasdaq sells off heavily, the beta value for stock drawdowns tends to increase.
Both channels are active in the current decline, and the macro backdrop leaves the Fed with little room to ease either channel. CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, accelerating from 3.3% in March, while core CPI remained at 2.8% and the energy index rose 17.9% over the past 12 months.
WTI settled at $105.42 on May 15, up 4.2% on the day and 11.33% for the month, while Brent rose 3.35% to $109.26.
Trading Economics models Brent at $111.28 by the end of the quarter, while HSBC has raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $95, while modeling average Brent at $110 if supply contracts are in place towards the end of the summer.
According to data from the University of Michigan, year-on-year inflation expectations were at 4.5% in May, while the Fed’s April FOMC statement promised to assess inflation before easing, leaving the hurdles for policy easing high.
CoinShares reported $706.1 million in inflows into its Bitcoin investment products for the week ending May 11, suggesting strong institutional bids.
Since then, the bid has deteriorated to an outflow of $630.4 million on May 13, an inflow of $131.3 million on May 14, and an outflow of $290.4 million on May 15, according to daily U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF data from Pharcyde Investors.
This 2-of-3 outflow sequence removed the ETF’s buffer from the $78,000 support test at a time when it needed protection, the same buffer that absorbed macro headwinds in the early weeks.
support map
Intraday low was $77,716.09 $BTC Just inside the support zone, a daily close above $78,000 would technically cap a correction.
A decisive loss at $77,700 is the beginning of the next downside sequence, with $76,500 being the first follow-through target and the bears confirming the break, followed by $75,000 being the round number zone where bullish buyers historically need to show confidence.
Further extension would see $73,000 to $74,000, a range reconfigured as macro-driven deleveraging across risk assets.
Recovering $80,000 is the first step to neutralizing the bearish setup. That’s because the daily close breaks the low-to-low sequence from the past two sessions, giving the bulls a technically clean reset.
The more difficult task is $82,000. $BTC As of May 13, it was trading below the 200-day exponential moving average near that level, which serves as both the upper bound of the round number and a technical checkpoint. If the close exceeds $82,000, the $78,000 test will be reconfigured as a failed breakdown.
What the market can expect
Bitcoin could regain $80,000 if the 10-year Treasury yield falls below 4.50%, oil prices cool from their current levels above $105 per barrel, and ETF flows turn positive.
This recovery breaks the low-to-low sequence over the past two sessions and sets up a retest of the 200-day EMA level at $82,000. $BTC The following stores will be closed on May 13th.
If the day closes above $82,000, the yield-driven pullback will fail, leaving room for the high $80,000s and reframing the past week as a corrective shakeout with fundamental accumulation theory intact.
if $BTC With Treasury yields hovering around 4.60% and ETF outflows continuing, the stock closed below $77,700 and will likely confirm a support test.
The support at $76,500 is the first downside objective, with the bears confirming the break and a correction entering new lows. The next level to look at is $75,000, the round number zone where push buyers have historically needed to absorb supply with confidence.
A sustained move below $75,000 will push it higher. $BTC Toward the $74,000 to $73,000 zone, this range is dominated by cross-asset price repricing impacting stocks and bonds, and $BTC In the same way.
Macro inputs that drive Bitcoin’s near-term direction need to stabilize before a recovery anchor forms.
The 10-year is 4.599% and the 30-year is 5.131%, offering holders an income floor of 4.5% to 5.1%. Bitcoin sits below its floor in carry given its non-yielding status.
With inflation expectations next year at 4.5% and the Fed still assessing the situation before transitioning, rapid policy easing is far from realistic pricing in the market.
The $78,000 zone involves a structural test of whether buyers and long-term holders of the ETF can absorb the cost of changing interest rates fast enough to stabilize prices before the support shelf collapses.
