Over the past week, Bitcoin has been trading sideways above the $70,000 high and has failed to recover the psychological $82,000 level that has eluded the market’s bull run since mid-May. In particular, the $76,000 price level has now been tested for three consecutive weeks and held each time, emerging as a substantial support zone. However, vague on-chain indicators could be flashing the clearest bottom signal in Bitcoin history.
The main bearish signal comes from investor cost-based data.
In the May 22nd post, CryptoChan shares data from a historically reliable bottom indicator consisting of two realized price bands. And the 0-10 year realized price, based on the broader market average cost, is $64,412. The ratio between these two bands indicates how stressed long-term holders are compared to the broader market. A drop below 0.936 and then back up to 1.0 would mark the exact lowest point in all previous Bitcoin cycles.
🚨 Historical experience shows that the black line approaching the green line is often a symbolic signal of the end of a bear market and a historic bottom.
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📊【#BTC (Continuously updated every 4 years) The indicator on the current chart has risen to 0.936.During the 2015 bear market, it took 59 days for the indicator to rise from 0.936 to 1.
In 2018-19, it took 66 days for the indicator to rise from 0.936 to 1. https://t.co/pOwvk1rsDu pic.twitter.com/kr6P4m7bBy— CryptoChan (@0xCryptoChan) May 22, 2026
This is because when the ratio reaches 1.0, the green line (cost of holding long-term) overtakes the black line (cost of overall market). This means that even the most confident holder is underwater. This is the moment when selling pressure is completely exhausted and market sentiment falls into extreme panic. At the bottom of the 2015 bear market, it took 59 days for this ratio to rise from 0.936 back to 1.0. The 2018-2019 downturn took 66 days to recover. The journey took 50 days when it bottomed out with the FTX collapse in November 2022. This ratio is now again 0.936. If current numbers hold and historical data repeats, Bitcoin’s final bottom window could occur around mid to late July 2026.
Bitcoin Price Overview
As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $75,269 after falling 2.84% over the past week. At the same time, the performance of the asset over larger time periods is also negative, with a decline of 4.65% and 3.55% on the weekly and monthly charts, respectively.
According to data from Coincodex, the Fear and Greed Index is at 28, indicating that fear is having a significant impact on the market. Nonetheless, CoinCodex analysts support a near-term push towards $83,354 over the next five days. In one month, they expect to earn $77,741. However, their projected 3-month price target of $90,529 suggests a potential 16% upside from the current market price.
Featured image by Pixelz.cc, chart by Tradingview
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