The Bitcoin (BTC) market will undergo a structural change in 2026 compared to previous years. Gone are the traditional explanations for the impact of mass adoption and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to support price increases.
According to the latest report from financial analysis firm 10x Research, published on May 17, 2026, recent Bitcoin price movements have largely responded to: Centralized and predictable enterprise dynamics.
The company clearly warns in its report that “a single engine has been driving Bitcoin’s rise through 2026. It runs every month, belongs to a single entity, and accounts for 70% of all dollars flowing into Bitcoin this year.” Under this scenario, the analysts argue, “If you’re trading Bitcoin based on macroeconomic catalysts, Federal Reserve statements, or news about ETFs, you’re looking at the wrong clock.”
So what is that “single engine”? As the title of this publication suggests, it is about: strategy (formerly known as “MicroStrategy”), a company founded and led by Michael Saylor, has become the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
this Extreme concentration of demand It is directly translated into a capital flow balance. The report details that “strategies accounted for $11.4 billion of the $16 billion that has flowed into Bitcoin so far this year, accounting for 70% of the total, considering flows through stablecoins, ETFs, and futures.”
Such a capital injection, when analyzed on an annual basis, equates to an annual acquisition of $31 billion or 382,000 BTC. This results in an average daily purchase rate of $85 million. Number that doubles the total daily production of Bitcoin miningwhich generates only 450 BTC per day, which is equivalent to about $36 million.
There was a change in Bitcoin players.
According to data maintained by 10x Research, we haven’t seen retail investor euphoria or ETF inflows this cycle. The research firm said total inflows into Bitcoin ETFs so far this year are just $2.8 billion, far lower than the $6.1 billion in the same period last year and the $12 billion expected on the same day in 2024.
Annualized current ETF forecasts: 7.6 billion dollars, what does it represent This is just a small portion of the 2024 consolidated total of $34 billion.
According to the analysis firm, “The structural reason is simple: basic operations are broken.” When Bitcoin funding rates averaged -1% in 2026, +6.2% in 2025, and +12.4% in 2024, the hedge fund arbitrage opportunities that supported ETF purchases have completely disappeared. With a recent 30-day average of -5%, the system’s paralysis is a direct result of the absence of financial incentives.
Simply put, 10x Research hypothesizes that many large investment funds did not buy Bitcoin ETFs out of a belief that the price would rise, but rather to implement arbitrage strategies. The mechanism consisted of buying Bitcoin through an ETF while simultaneously selling futures contracts, taking advantage of the fact that the market was paying a very high and safe return to maintain that position.
Now that market interest has declined and interest rates have turned negative, operations are no longer making profits, they are leaving losses. Once this incentive for easy funding disappeared, financial institutions simply stopped buying ETFs..
Participation in the retail sector has also declined significantly due to the apathy of institutional investors. According to 10x Research, the spot market will average $110 billion in daily trading volume in 2026, up from $140 billion in 2025.
This decline is clearly seen in markets with a strong retail base like South Korea, where daily transaction volume fell to $1.4 billion this year from $2.8 billion in 2025 and $3.4 billion in 2024.
The research firm said the explanation behind this behavior lies in the proxy performance of the domestic stock market. South Korea’s KOSPI index, led by semiconductor companies, has returned 224% over the past 12 months, while Bitcoin has fallen 21% over the same period.
This disconnect is critical, as the report points out: “Low interest in Bitcoin is understandable and unsurprising, given that it is retail investors who are driving up the lending rates that make ETF arbitrage attractive.” “If the supply of retail investors dies, the entire chain breaks,” the report notes.
Considering this panorama, even nature’s supplies are changing. Miners are under pressure to liquidate all coins produced in order to fund the artificial intelligence hosting infrastructure. As such, “the only structural buyer supporting prices is a single leveraged entity (strategy) operating a preferred stock machine, and the miners that previously provided natural accumulated supply have been replaced by sellers.”
Currently an effective but fragile strategy
The report details how this single buyer operates under strict time cycles tied to Strategy’s STRC preferred stock.
“Currently, buy limits are determined entirely by the strategy’s monthly STRC buy cycle. Investors must own STRC by the 15th to qualify for the 11.5% month-end dividend, with buying demand concentrated in the preceding 1-2 weeks.”
When this trend brings the value of STRC stock closer to its $100 par value, the company’s ATM program is activated and funds are injected directly into spot Bitcoin purchases.
According to the cited 8-K company report, purchases are concentrated only during this biweekly period and decline significantly thereafter. With the end of the monthly buying calendar, 10xResearch warns that “the market’s biggest buyers will be silent for about three weeks” and that “the realistic expectation for the next three weeks is that mechanical demand will disappear and Bitcoin will consolidate until the June cycle begins.” Our direct advice to market participants is to “trade the watch, not the story.”
From the flow x-ray provided by the company’s market analysis, it is clear that: Strategy Adds Increased Systemic Risk to Bitcoin Price. By absorbing 70% of structural purchases in a situation where organic capital in ETFs and retail interest is paralyzed, the financial architecture of this company is as follows: A single point of failure for the entire asset pricing ecosystem.
The danger of this concentrated model lies in the weakness of the capital engineering that supports it. The operation of a perpetual issuance program is entirely dependent on the preferred stock remaining attractive and trading close to par.
If the price of Bitcoin experiences a sharp enough decline that damages the company’s books, or if questions arise about the sustainability of the 11.5% dividend, the market will have no incentive to buy these preferred shares. If they are traded below face value, the issuing mechanism will stop completely.
Faced with a disconnection from this financial engine, Bitcoin will find itself in an unprecedentedly vulnerable situation. Without regular injections of billions of dollars, the spot order book would lack the organic depth needed to sustain current prices as miners act as forced sellers to cover the operating costs of the technology infrastructure.
Absolute dependence on a single highly leveraged corporate entity exposes assets to internal turmoil and loss of confidence in the company, immediately leading to a systematic correction in Bitcoin prices.
Strategy follows a ‘recipe for disaster’, says Ricardo Fernández
This is not the first time the risks of Strategy’s actions have come to light. On May 18, CriptoNoticias reported on an analysis by Chilean stock market expert Ricardo Fernández.
“The essence of the strategy is to buy BTC in highly overvalued MSTR stock,” Fernandes said. He says this mechanism could be a “recipe for disaster” if the market no longer values the strategy above its net asset value.
Fernandes also warned of Strategy’s increasing financial obligations. The company currently has more than $8.2 billion in debt and approximately $13.5 billion in outstanding preferred stock. These recommended devices include series such as STRF, STRK, STRD, and STRC.
He believes this is one of the main risks of this model. “The 10% dividend on preferred stock and convertible bonds will force continued dilution or sale of BTC, harming long-term value for shareholders,” he argues.
Therefore, it seems that there is definitely a degree of dependence on this company. If Strategy loses its ability to issue bonds, the Bitcoin market will suffer a severe systemic correction without real organic demand.
