Ethereum is trading at $2.32,000 as the first weekend of May unfolds, stuck in the same technical impasse it has been trapped in for the past three weeks. The asset is closing in on the $2.4,000 resistance zone, with no confidence to break above it or any weakness below the ascending channel that has supported the recovery since February.
But what continues to change is the on-chain situation below the surface. Foreign exchange reserves have just hit another new low as supplies from exchanges are being quietly withdrawn.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart
$ETH The moving average is currently sitting around $22,000, retesting the falling 100-day moving average from above. The RSI is also hovering around 55, indicating that the market is gaining momentum but not losing it. The white channel rising from the February lows remains intact, with its lower limit serving as support around $2,000.
Above, the $2.4,000 supply zone is still the only level that changes the story. A daily close through it would simultaneously mean a breakout of horizontal resistance and likely a retest of the 200-day moving average (around $27,000). This potential breakout essentially opens the door to a critical supply zone at $2.8,000. On the other hand, if the price cannot sustain above $2.2,000 and the 100-day moving average is not maintained in the next pullback, the channel structure will begin to be threatened and attention will once again be focused on the $1.8,000 demand area.
$ETH/USDT 4 hour chart
The descending wedge that formed after the mid-April high near $240,000 has tightened further on the 4-hour chart. The price is currently sitting near the upper limit of $2.35,000 and is moving towards the upper limit again. The RSI has also recovered above 50 in this time frame, but has not yet provided a strong directional signal.
Since then, the $2.4,000 resistance zone has limited any recent upside attempts, and it remains the top for the time being. A close above that would bullishly resolve the wedge and target the upper end of the larger channel around $2.5,000. Below this, a break below the wedge and recent lows near $2.2,000 could invalidate the pattern and lead to a fall towards the lower trendline of the ascending channel near $2.1,000.
On-chain analysis
Ethereum exchange reserves drop to 14.5 million $ETHwhich is the lowest level recorded in this entire dataset. At its recent peak, the exchange had over 21 million holdings $ETH;This number continually decreased through bull markets and corrections. Now, this metric is accelerating even further to over 1.5 million $ETH In the past four months alone, we have exited the exchange.
Structural implications are important. $ETH Although more available on exchanges than at any time in recent years, liquid sell-side supply, which typically caps collections, is shrinking. This does not guarantee that it will exceed $240,000, as demand still needs to materialize.
But that does mean that if buyers step in with conviction, the order backlog could be thinner than at any point so far this cycle. The divergence between steadily declining reserves and prices that remain below resistance is the type of setup that tends to resolve quickly once technical triggers arrive.
