According to research and brokerage firm K33, selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin investors may be nearing a saturation point after a multi-year circulation process.
A report published by Vettle Runde, research director at K33, notes that the supply of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) from more than two years ago has been steadily decreasing since 2024, with approximately 1.6 million BTC (approximately $138 billion at current prices) returning to circulation during this period, pointing to persistent on-chain selling by early investors.
Runde argued that cuts of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by technical reasons. While Lunde acknowledged that factors such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s transition from closed-end products to spot ETFs, wallet consolidation, and security-related address updates may explain some of the initial movement, he said these factors do not fully explain the scale of the supply that has returned to circulation. According to the report, this photo shows a meaningful distribution process.
K33 data reveals that 2024 and 2025 are the second and third highest years in Bitcoin history in terms of reinvigorating long-term supply. Only in 2017 was there more volume in this area. But Runde said the current cycle is very different from 2017. Recalling that the movement back then was related to altcoin trading, ICOs, and protocol incentives, Lunde said that today’s wave is being driven by direct sales due to the deep liquidity created by US spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased financial demand from institutional investors.
The report also notes large transactions that support this trend. Examples include an over-the-counter (OTC) sale of 80,000 BTC via Galaxy in July, a whale converting 24,000 BTC to ETH in August, and an additional sale of approximately 11,000 BTC between October and November. K33 noted that similar activity is common among other large investors, and this could be a major reason for Bitcoin’s relatively poor performance in 2025.
According to K33, approximately $300 billion worth of Bitcoins older than a year have been restored to supply this year alone. Lunde said increased institutional liquidity has allowed long-term investors to profit at six-digit price levels, thereby reducing ownership concentration and setting new reference prices for a significant portion of circulating supply.
Regarding future expectations, a more benign picture was painted. Lunde noted that about 20% of Bitcoin supply has returned to circulation over the past two years and said he expects on-chain selling pressure to approach saturation. In this context, it was predicted that the two-year downward trend in Bitcoin supply could end and exceed the current level of approximately 12.16 million BTC by the end of 2026. It was assessed that net long demand may materialize due to a decrease in selling by early investors.
The report also highlighted how portfolio balances are affected as the end of the quarter approaches. Lunde noted that Bitcoin historically tends to move in the opposite direction from the previous quarter at the beginning of a new quarter, and that Bitcoin lagging other asset classes in the fourth quarter could cause portfolio managers with stable allocation goals to turn to Bitcoin in late December and early January. Similar movements were observed from late September to early October.
Meanwhile, Lunde cautioned that in historical cycles, supply resumptions have generally been concentrated around market peaks rather than market lows. However, Lunde noted that the current cycle is different, as Bitcoin is increasingly integrated into mainstream finance through ETFs, investment advisory platforms, and a clearer regulatory framework, arguing that more sustained demand could emerge as distribution pressures ease.
*This is not investment advice.
