Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin is showing mixed signals in the market.
This is clear from the latest report published today, April 20, 2026 by analytics firm Glassnode. Identify combinations of increasing buying interest and signs of bearish pressure.
The report, which analyzes Bitcoin’s movements for the week from April 13th to April 17th, says that although there are signs of deterioration in the short term, Bitcoin maintains a solid demand base. “Despite the slight decline in bullish price momentum, the market still shows strong buying interest, which could cushion a significant decline,” Glassnod said.
However, this reading coexists with indicators pointing in the opposite direction. One of the most noticeable Glassnode analysts analyze Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) to indicate a shift to the sell side.
This is an indicator that measures the difference between executed buy orders and sell orders. Simply put, you can determine which side (buyer or seller) has the upper hand.
On the chart, the blue line represents CVD and the gray line shows Bitcoin price. The movement of CVD into negative territory seen in the last stretch indicates that sell orders are outpacing buy orders. In the short term, it reflects the advantage of sellers.
This data is important because it suggests that although there is interest, sellers are in control in the short term.
Futures: Increased risk but bearish bias
There is also some tension in the outlook for futures markets. On the other hand, open interest continues to increase, indicating increased risk exposure. But at the same time Financing of long positions (traders betting on rising prices) deteriorated.
As seen in the previous graph, the blue line represents the loan rate (funding rate), the gray line corresponds to the price. Glassnode points out that “long-side funding decreased significantly to $1.8 million, a 315% decrease.” This move towards negative values means that the trader is paying money to hold a short position (short), suggesting a bearish bias or greater caution.
in contrast, US BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to perform well. “Weekly net flows increased to $553.9 million compared to $251.7 million previously,” the report shows.
On the chart, the blue line represents the flow of funds into the ETF and the gray line shows the price. A sustained rise in the blue line indicates capital inflows, which “highlights the bullish sentiment among institutional investors.” It suggests greater interaction with BTC through regulated channels.
Meanwhile, the options market provides another relevant signal. Open interest (Open interest(which measures the total number of active option contracts that have not yet been filled) fell to $28.2 billion.
On the chart, the blue line represents open interest, or the total open interest, and the gray line represents the price. According to Glassnode, this decline “suggests a significant decline in participation and speculative demand.” This may indicate taking profits or closing a position. This may affect future market volatility.
Signs of stabilization
Beyond derivatives markets, Glassnode identifies mixed signals within liquidity structures. The decline in hot capital and stability between short- and long-term holders suggests caution, but not a wholesale exit from the market.
In this context, the report focuses on the evolution of Net Unrealized Gain/Loss (NUPL), an indicator that measures the level of potential profits or losses in the market in relation to the acquisition price.
The improvement in NUPL indicates that the proportion of investors is increasing. Profits are coming back, but this usually comes with a stabilization phase. However, Glassnode warns that pressure will continue in the near term as “lower realized P&Ls indicate fear-driven selling”.
The Bitcoin market is experiencing a moment of unstable equilibrium. While ETFs and open interest maintain a slightly optimistic bias, metrics such as CVD and funding ratios reflect increasing bearish pressure.
All this takes place in an uncertain geopolitical context, exacerbated by the escalation between Iran and the US, where markets are facing new tensions. As CriptoNoticias reported, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil circulates, is adding further pressure. The resolution of this dispute will be decisive in defining the next move in BTC price.
