Lingam made an early decision.
Vinny Lingam, co-founder of Praxos Capital, formerly known as “The Oracle,” appeared on the June 25, 2026 episode of the podcast “Unchained” with Laura Singh. At the beginning of the interview, Lingam quickly revisited a prediction he made about the strategy two years ago. Bitcoin Finance company formerly known as Microstrategy.
In October 2024, Lingham posted a warning to X that Michael Saylor would ultimately do more damage. Bitcoin than FTX. This prophecy was ridiculed at the time. MicroStrategy was trading near its all-time high of $473.83. As of this week, MSTR is trading around $90.70, down more than 80% from its peak.
“I posted a tweet in October 2024 saying I believed Michael Saylor would ultimately do more damage.” Bitcoin than FTX,” Lingam explained in an interview with Singh.
He added:
“At the time, this was a very unpopular prediction. Now, 18 months later, people are starting to wonder if I was really right.”
“Sailor Scheme”
Mr. Ringham stopped short of calling the strategy a Ponzi scheme, but he coined his own term for what Mr. Saylor had constructed.
“He built a very complex capital structure consisting of debt and layers of preferred securities,” Ringham argued, “I jokingly call it the ‘Saylor Plan.'” He published STRC, STRD, STRK, etc. When one product stopped working, he simply introduced another. ”
STRC, one of the preferred stock classes at the center of recent market concerns, closed at $75.69 today after falling below $74 earlier this week. Lingam does not expect a recovery.
“I don’t think STRC will ever go back to $100,” he said. “It will never be traded at face value again.”
endgame of chess
Strategy recently raised $335 million by selling 2.7 million shares of its common stock, and used about $300 million to increase its cash reserves to about $1.4 billion. This cash is expected to cover approximately 10 months’ worth of preferred dividend obligations. In Lingam’s view, the market responded by continuing to sell both MSTR and STRC.
Lingham argues that the company’s recent move to a bimonthly dividend has made the situation even worse. More frequent payment cycles mean that management has less time to react if conditions worsen and cash reserves become under pressure with each cycle.
He uses chess terms to explain Thaler’s current position.
“Michael is currently in what is known in chess as Zugzwang,” Ringham said. “Every action he can take is a loss-making action. If he increases the dividend yield, he will shorten his financing options. If he issues more shares, he will further dilute common shareholders.”
$6.7 billion debt problem
During the discussion, Singh explained that Matt Walsh, a founding partner at Castle Island Ventures, recently expressed concerns about Strategy’s convertible notes, which total approximately $6.7 billion outstanding. Singh said the bond has a put right, allowing holders to demand cash repayment at par if the bond is not converted or refinanced. Walsh estimates the first three maturities can be covered through June 2028. Bitcoin The price is about $60,700, and about 74,000 units need to be sold. BTC. Approximately 111,000 would be required to cover the entire schedule Bitcoin.
Mr Lingham responded to Mr Singh’s summary of Mr Walsh’s X post, arguing that the market had already priced in that risk.
“Only 32 units of the strategy were sold.” Bitcoin “And the market reacted negatively. Imagine what would happen if the company ended up having to sell tens of thousands of units,” he said. Bitcoin”
reverse reflection loop
Lingam argues that the active accumulation of strategies created a self-reinforcing cycle that worked well on the upward trajectory. the company bought BitcoinHe believes this has driven up the price, increasing the value of MSTR, allowing it to issue more shares and buy more Bitcoin. He claims that the cycle is now spinning in reverse.
“Once Strategy is no longer the largest buyer of Bitcoin, selling pressure will start to outweigh buying pressure,” he said. “Liquidity is lost. The biggest source of demand is gone.”
He added that the strategy’s mNAV is around 1.06, a level at which similar investment vehicles have historically traded at a discount. He said a value closer to 0.90 was more reasonable given the circumstances.
what happens next
Ringham told the hosts of the Unchained podcast that the healthiest outcome would be for Saylor to stop buying Bitcoin, stop issuing new shares, conserve cash, and wait for the market cycle to recover. He doesn’t expect that to happen.
“I don’t think he would admit that he needs to change his strategy,” Lingham said. “I think arrogance plays a big role here.”
