Benjamin Cowen, a leading cryptocurrency market analyst, has assessed the current state of Bitcoin and bear market sentiment in a new analysis. Cowen used historical data and cycles to warn investors against misleading price increases.
Cowen made his comments at a time when Bitcoin was trading just above the $78,000 level, arguing that bear markets are very difficult to manage psychologically.
“A bear market always deceives both the bulls and the bears,” the analyst said, adding that the temporary and misleading bull markets seen during this period are endemic to the market.
Cowen cited examples from past cycles to counter the prevailing market sentiment: “This time is different. This is the first time we’ve seen a bear market rally for this long.” He reminded viewers that in the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear markets, it took 15 to 25 weeks to reach new lows, while in the current situation, only 14 weeks have passed.
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Cowen said June has historically always been an important turning point (bottom or local peak) for Bitcoin, and predicted that the market’s main direction could shift further downwards into October or the fourth quarter of this year.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin is currently struggling to break above the 200-day moving average, a key threshold that is difficult to cross in a bear market, and that even a possible rally to $85,000 based on historical resistance levels will not break the main downtrend.
Regarding Bitcoin’s performance against other assets, Cowen said, “Bitcoin supporters may scoff at gold, but Bitcoin has lost 58% of its value versus gold since December 2024.”
He claimed that Bitcoin could lose an additional 45% of its value against gold while gold continues to rise towards the end of the year.
Cowen noted that the current US midterm election year cycle is similar to 2018, and a potential second macroeconomic decline in the S&P 500 could trigger a new wave of declines in Bitcoin. He added that based on the fair value realized price and the equilibrium price pattern, it would not be surprising if Bitcoin fell to the $40,000 level.
*This is not investment advice.
