Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin’s market structure has been quietly changing. After spending most of the first quarter of 2026 in a relentless decline; $BTC It is currently trading around $75,200, above the upper bound of the descending channel and at a key resistance zone between $75,000 and $80,000. The question is no longer whether the recovery is progressing, but whether there is enough structural support to make it more durable.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart
For several months, all attempts at recovery on the daily chart disappeared as it ran straight into the descending 100-day moving average (currently located at around $75,000) and the top of the descending channel. The current effort differs in important ways. The RSI has hit new lows since February and is far from overbought. This gained momentum below the price movement and led to a breakout above the 100-day moving average and the top of the channel.
but, $BTC It currently sits within the $75,000-$80,000 zone and hasn’t crossed it yet. A return to this band on a closing price basis and, more importantly, a retest above this band would represent a true structural change.
The 200-day moving average (around $85,000) and the $95,000-$100,000 supply zone are the big hurdles mentioned above. The 100-day moving average just below the current market price and the former upper bound of the channel near $73,000-74,000 are now the first support line, and the $60,000 demand zone remains the key lower bound for this recovery.
$BTC/USDT 4 hour chart
The upward channel from the February lows has done its job. It has provided a higher low-up structure that gradually increases the price from the $60,000 area to the top of the channel near $77,000 to $78,000. $BTC I tagged it earlier this week before retracting it. Prices are currently consolidating around $75,200, just inside the $74,000-$76,000 resistance-to-support level following the rejection.
The 4-hour RSI has also fallen from the rising high 70s to the low 50s, indicating a short-term loss of momentum. This type of decline, where a former resistance zone has now turned into support, is a textbook consolidation move, and the lower end of the ascending channel around $68,000 remains well below with room for buyers to work on it.
If the RSI is able to break above 55 and reclaim $76,000, it would be a green light for another attempt at the top of the channel boundary and beyond towards the $80,000 target.
sentiment analysis
Estimated leverage ratios across all exchanges have risen sharply in recent weeks, with EMA(7) now rising towards 0.24, approaching the elevated levels last seen at the peak of the bull market in late 2025. $BTC was traded for between $110,000 and $125,000. This means that the trader is using much more leverage compared to the amount of capital. $BTC The stock is still trading at a price level nearly 40% below its high price on exchanges.
The interpretation here is nuanced. On the other hand, a highly leveraged long-side market is a powerful accelerator in a short squeeze scenario, so if a breakout above $80,000 materializes, increased leverage could fuel an explosive upside move.
On the other hand, vulnerability arises when leverage increases at a level of structural uncertainty. if $BTC If the $75,000 support zone fails to hold and rolls over, a series of liquidations could significantly amplify the downside move. Therefore, the time for decisions should be over on which direction Bitcoin accelerates in the coming weeks.
