Bitcoin gained liquidity above the April high of its monthly range in February. $ETH It rallied towards $2,500 but failed to close above the same level and returned to the range. That disconnect is the most important thing happening in the world. $ETH The current chart sits below a daily setup that has not achieved a close above the Bollinger midline since late April.
$ETH Daily chart: Below the midline, SAR remains downward
Bollinger’s median line at $2,324 has been a resistance since the rally from $2,408 in late April. The price at $2,302 is below that, and the SAR at $2,403 is high, with both indicators aligning bearishly on a daily basis. The $2,240 floor is the next key support, with a close below this starting the February cycle low of $2,000.
The upper band at $2,408 coincides with the April rejection high. A simultaneous clearing of the $2,403 SAR and the upper band will cause a bullish reversal in the daily setting, but $ETH I haven’t been able to manage it since February.
Key levels for May 3rd:
- Bollinger Lower Band: $2,240
- Current price: $2,302
- Bollinger midline: $2,324
- SAR resistance: $2,403
- Bollinger upper band: $2,408
- Highest price in February: $2,475
- Monthly Range Support: $1,747
What the monthly charts actually show
The monthly candlestick chart is where the bearish case exists. Bitcoin broke above its February monthly high in April and closed within that range, confirming the liquidity gains. $ETH It rallied towards $2,500, but failed to close above February’s range high and ended the month back within the range. From a smart money perspective, buyers who were expecting a breakout were trapped, and the price rose to the point of entry and then reversed without any follow-through.
Divergence with BTC $ETH Monthly signals are not short-term noise signals. This reflects underlying demand weakness. $ETH At current levels, it becomes more likely that any recovery attempt in May will face a similar rejection near $2,475.
Ethereum Foundation third OTC sale in two months
0/ Today, the Ethereum Foundation finalized 10,000 terms $ETH The average price via OTC is $2,292.15.
For this sale, the OTC counterpart was @BitMNR.
— Ethereum Foundation (@ethereumfndn) May 1, 2026
Ethereum Foundation sold another 10,000 pieces $ETH Sold to BitMine on May 2nd for $2,292 each, for a total of $22.9 million. The April 24th sale was for an additional 10,000 pieces. $ETH Priced at $2,387, originally priced at $5,000 in March $ETH For $2,043. Through three transactions, the foundation sold 25,000 units. $ETH Worth approximately $55 million.
The foundation explained that sales will be made as financial controls, with proceeds going toward research, grants, and operations of the protocol. The community’s reaction was positive. Users publicly asked why they needed $46 million in two weeks and whether the developers would accept it. $ETH Directly as payment.
BitMine currently holds 4.5 million $ETH Valued at over $10 billion, accounting for 3.8% of total supply and leading in staking volume with over 4 million $ETH Expanded. Nevertheless, the company reported a net loss of $3.82 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Repeated Foundation OTC sales below $2,400 add consistent selling pressure at exactly that level. $ETH These conditions must be maintained for recovery to proceed.
$ETH Derivatives: Shorts suffer more despite bearish settings
Futures trading volume increased 11.74% to $31.84 billion, while OI was flat at $30.83 billion. Options volume increased 6.13% to $657.74 million and option OI increased 1.21% to $6.19 billion, measuring positioning rather than directional conviction.
The long/short ratio is 1.0117. Top traders on Binance and OKX are both well above 1.27. Over the 24-hour period, shorts absorbed $25.57 million in liquidations compared to longs’ $16.82 million, further hurting sellers even though the price remains below both the midline and the SAR. OI is $30.53 billion, well below the peak of around $70 billion in the second half of 2025.
$ETH Price prediction: Outlook for May 3rd
- upside: $ETH It closed above the Bollinger intermediate line at $2,324, regained SAR at $2,403, and is targeting the February range high of $2,475. Short sellers absorb further liquidations, supporting short-term bids.
- Downside: $ETH remains below the midline, and foundation over-the-counter selling continues to pressure the price towards the $2,240 lower band. With a loss of $2,240, the February low of $2,000 is back in sight. If May continues to start with a risk-off sentiment, the monthly smart money/Bitcoin divergence becomes an overall risk.