If historical bear market patterns repeat, Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to $38,500 by October 2026, according to an analysis by Bitcoin (BTC). trading shots.
This prediction is based on the relationship between Bitcoin’s movement at past bear market bottoms and the long-term exponential moving average (EMA).
Analysis shared by TradingView The June 15 post suggests that Bitcoin’s current bear cycle may not be complete, even though the asset is trading about 50% below its all-time high in October 2025 near $126,300.
According to trading shotsmajor Bitcoin bear market bottoms have historically formed within the EMA zone, which is lower than the previous cycle.
According to our analysis, Bitcoin’s January 2015 bottom occurred within the 200-week EMA to 300-week EMA.
During the 2018 bear market, cryptocurrencies once again found support in the same zone before the March 2020 COVID-19 crash pushed assets into the 300-400 EMA range.
Bitcoin’s next big bottom formed in November-December 2022 within the EMA400-500 zone. trading shots We noted that each bear market consistently bottoms at one EMA band below the previous cycle.
Major Bitcoin price levels
Combining this pattern with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory, analysts predict that the current bear cycle could bottom out around October 2026.
If bullish, this would mean Bitcoin has support in the 400-500 EMA range and a bottom between $50,550 and $44,250. In a bearish scenario, Bitcoin would fall into the EMA500-600 zone and the bottom would be placed between $44,250 and $38,500.
The analysis also highlights strong time symmetry, with previous bear markets lasting approximately 364 to 413 days before being replaced by bull cycles lasting approximately 1,064 days.
Overall, Bitcoin has struggled since peaking above $126,000 in October 2025. This decline coincides with significant outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs throughout 2026, although inflows briefly returned on June 12th after weeks of selling pressure.
Bitcoin price analysis
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $66,223, up nearly 3% in the past 24 hours and 3.8% for the week.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains under pressure, trading below its 50-day SMA of $73,965 and 200-day SMA of $77,680. This indicates that short-term and long-term trends are still bearish and buyers have yet to reclaim key resistance levels.
Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI is at 41.7, staying in neutral territory but below the midpoint of 50. This shows that Bitcoin is not oversold yet, but the bearish momentum continues. A break above 50 would indicate improving momentum, while a drop towards 30 could increase selling pressure.
