Ethereum is struggling below $2,150 as selling pressure continues to dictate the near-term direction of the market, and the recovery that briefly pushed Ethereum towards $2,400 is fading into memory. While this decline is jarring, top analyst Dirkforst identified a signal in the derivatives data that reframes the current weakness in a way that is immediately recognizable to experienced market participants.
Ethereum’s taker-to-sell ratio on Binance just reached its most negative value since September 2023. This period was at the height of the last bear market and preceded one of the most notable recoveries the asset has produced. Currently, the weekly ratio is 0.91, meaning that active sell orders significantly outnumber active buy orders in Binance’s futures order book. Sellers don’t just exist, they dominate, and we haven’t seen any room for that dominance in nearly two years.
The metrics Darkhost studies are among the most direct measures of short-term market momentum and investor sentiment. When this ratio falls below 1.0, sellers control immediate order flow. When we reach extreme conditions like the one shown in September 2023, and when current measurements come into alignment, the market enters a stage where bearish conviction becomes the overwhelming consensus, rather than just the general view.
Consensus trading in financial markets has a history. And that history is what makes Darkforest’s analysis worth reading carefully before drawing any conclusions about what Ethereum’s current weaknesses actually mean for what comes next.
When everyone is in short supply, the market becomes its own catalyst.
Darkhost places current sentiment at an extreme in the context of price, which gives it a positive connotation. Ethereum has corrected around 9% over the past seven days and continues to trade within the broad range that has defined its structure since the recovery from the cycle lows (around $1,500 on the downside and around $4,000 on the upside). Within that range, current price levels do not push us into new bear market territory. This represents a correction within the established structure, against which unprecedented levels of bearish positioning have now accumulated.
Binance: Ethereum Taker Buy/Sell Ratio | Source: CryptoQuant
This combination, adjustment within ranges rather than breakdowns across ranges, is what makes sentiment not just alarming, but analytically very interesting. If the market decisively enters new downward territory, extreme bearish positioning may reflect an accurate assessment of the trend. If the market corrects within the set range and the bearish positioning reaches a two-year extreme, the positioning itself becomes a risk.
Darkforest is careful about what this observation means and what it does not support. Situations like this are difficult to predict accurately, and emotional extremes can last longer than logic suggests before resolution. However, the mechanism is simple. The more aggressively participants position on the short side, the larger the pool of forced buyers will be if the price moves against them.
A market that everyone is shorting is one where a recovery forces more than just a price up, it forces an exit, which accelerates the move and forces more exits. The current ratio of 0.91 does not guarantee that order. That means the conditions for this have rarely been as perfect as they are now.
Ethereum trades on significant support as bearish momentum continues to grow
Ethereum is trading around $2,130 after losing momentum that briefly pushed the price into the $2,400 resistance area earlier this month. The daily chart shows that while ETH is once again below its 100-day moving average, there is a firm cap below the descending 200-day moving average near $2,600, reinforcing the broad bearish structure that still dominates the market.
Ethereum consolidates below daily MA | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView
The recovery from the capitulation lows around $1,800 in February initially appeared to be constructive, with Ethereum regaining key support levels and posting a series of highs through April. However, the bullish momentum weakened significantly as ETH approached a strong resistance cluster between $2,300 and $2,400. Multiple failed breakout attempts have created a low-to-high structure, indicating buyer confidence is weakening before the recent decline accelerates.
Importantly, Ethereum is currently testing the $2,100-$2,150 region that served as support during the April consolidation phase. A definitive loss of this zone could expose ETH to another move into the broader demand area around $1,900-$2,000, where buyers aggressively defended the price after the February crash.
Volume remains relatively subdued compared to the volatility seen earlier this year, suggesting that the current decline is driven more by deteriorating sentiment and defensive positioning than a panic capitulation. Combined with Binance’s very bearish taker buy/sell ratio, this chart reflects a market increasingly dominated by short-side conviction, even though strong spot demand that could sustainably reverse momentum is still lacking.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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