Nansen said Ethereum has recorded $478 million in net exchange outflows over the past seven days, a pace that is about five times faster than the average and a supply-side move that traders typically view as accumulation.
Nansen’s data complicates that view, with top profit-loss wallets selling a net $64 million over the past seven days, and both savvy traders and HyperLiquid Perpetual Futures whale accounts holding net short positions.
The “smart trader” had a net short position of $38 million, and Whale Wallet added an additional net short position of $21 million. These are the cohort that the market treats as truly informed traders, which makes their skepticism more important.
Why ETH/BTC is a real scoreboard
The source of the new attention can be traced back to Ethereum’s poor performance against Bitcoin, with the gap widening earlier this year. Compared to Bitcoin’s 26.2% decline as of July 14th, ETH is down about 37.1% since the beginning of the year, with an ETH/BTC ratio of nearly 0.029.
The rebound from the June low of 0.025 falls short of the levels seen before Ethereum’s previous periods of leadership.
Citi’s March 2026 scenario work provides price ranges to test the recovery, with a 12-month base case of around $3,175 and a bull case of $4,488 if end-investor demand strengthens significantly.
Citi pegs the recession case at $1,198, a wide spread that shows how much ETH’s short-term path depends on demand materializing on top of the already ongoing supply squeeze.
The rise in end-investor demand that triggers the bull event itself refers to the same gap that Nansen’s framework pointed to: capital that shows up and stays.
At Ethereum’s current price, Nansen’s outflow is equivalent to approximately 255,000 ETH, and this figure is worth comparing with the other two figures.
The U.S.-traded Spot Ethereum ETF collected about $84.3 million from July 6 to July 10, the equivalent of about 45,000 ETH, marking the first clearly positive week since a slump that lasted until late June.
Currency outflows were nearly six times the total demand for ETFs that week. Compared to Ethereum’s market capitalization, the same $478 million is equivalent to about 0.21% of the total, which is small enough as an indicator.
On July 13, it turned into an outflow of $15.4 million, according to data from Pharcyde Investors.
| metric | about worth | ETH equivalent amount | why is it important |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nansen Net Exchange leaked | $478 million | ~255,000 ETH | Bullish signal on the supply side suggesting ETH is being moved away from places where it can be sold. |
| Spot ETH ETF inflows, July 6-10 | $84.3 million | ~45,000 ETH | This shows that institutional demand is improving, but is still much smaller than foreign exchange outflows. |
| Spot ETH ETF flow on July 13th | -$15.4 million | ~8,200 ETH leaked | Indicating that ETF demand is not yet sustainable |
| Outflow amount as a percentage of ETH market capitalization | ～0.21% | Not applicable | It’s a big signal, but it’s too small to prove that supply is tight. |
Bidirectional usage image
According to DeFiLlama, Ethereum had nearly 484,966 active addresses, 2.7 million transactions, and 7-day DEX trading volume of $7.63 billion, an increase of 27.6% over the week.
The same dashboard shows that perpetual futures trading volume on the network is down 48.1% in that period, a difference that makes the activity data hard to read as a clear confirmation in either direction.
The network has a stablecoin market capitalization of approximately $150 billion, and RWA.xyz counts over 1,000 tokenized real-world assets settled on its network.
More than $70 million of ETH was bridged on Robinhood’s new chain in its first week. Although this is still small compared to the flows already in question, it is a real data point that shows Ethereum’s role as a payments infrastructure.
Jake Kenneth, senior research analyst at Nansen, argued that Ethereum needs sustained multi-week ETF inflows beyond single positive growth, along with continued growth in active addresses, rising DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL), and continued altcoin momentum.
Kennis said these numbers, taken together, would point to real capital turnover and new risk appetite, as opposed to a short-term rebound that would dissipate once the initial supply squeeze eased.
The Federal Reserve kept its target interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% at its June 17th meeting, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June fell to 3.5% compared to the same month last year, relieving some of the pressure on risk assets.
The resurgence of tensions in the Middle East caused the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise to around 4.62% at the same time, reinstating the kind of yield tensions that tend to hit high-beta assets like Ethereum the hardest.
Two ways to solve rotations
If ETF inflows continue for another 3-4 weeks and ETH/BTC rises from its current 0.029 towards the 0.032-0.035 range, active addresses and DeFi TVL will continue to rise along with it.
HyperLiquid’s existing short positioning turns into a forced cover, adding fuel to the move and giving Ethereum a serious opportunity in the $2,100-$2,400 zone.
| scenario | what must happen | ETH/BTC signal | ETH price zone | market interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bullish rotation | ETF inflows continue for another 3-4 weeks, active addresses increase, DeFi TVL rises, and shorts begin to cover | ETH/BTC rises from ~0.029 towards 0.032-0.035 | $2,100 – $2,400 | Exchange outflows were early evidence of real accumulation. |
| failure to rebound | ETF flows return to negative, usage stagnates, top profit/loss wallets continue to sell, ETH loses support at $1,800-1,813 | ETH/BTC retest ~0.027 or below | $1,500–$1,650 | Smart traders were right to call off this move. |
If ETF flows return to negative and Ethereum loses the $1,800-$1,813 zone that it has been holding as support, active address growth and DeFi TVL will stall accordingly. Wallets with big gains continue to sell at any strength, ETH/BTC is at risk of retesting or falling below June’s 0.027 low, and Ethereum is revisiting the $1,500 to $1,650 range.
Traders with the strongest records on the same dataset still need convincing, and Kenneth’s framework is that Ethereum needs weeks of ETF demand built up, as well as on-chain growth that continues to compound beyond a single good record.
Until that framework is met, ETH/BTC will remain the number that settles the debate.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
