Since February, Ethereum has remained “cheap” after its price fell below the total cost basis of $2.3 million. This means more holders will suffer losses, reducing selling pressure and downside risk.
However, cryptocurrency analysis firm CryptoQuant warned that a sustained bottom may still be difficult to see in the medium term. According to the company, a final bottom in a market cycle could occur if: $ETH The tag is $1.15,000 and cites a 2022 pattern based on the Realized Price Bands metric.
During the 2022 bear market cycle, altcoins marked a true bottom after reaching the lower bound of the indicator (dotted green line).
Assuming the prediction is positive, it suggests durability. $ETH The bottom could be realized with a 38% decline from the $1,885 value at press time.
There were three other signals related to Bitcoin. $ETH It was still far from the final lowest price.
Ethereum: 3 signals shown $ETH hasn’t hit bottom
Relatives first selling pressure above $ETH based on $ETH/$BTC The exchange inflow ratio was only half of the level that marked the previous market bottom (green zone).
At the time of writing, the indicator value was 0.8, but it dropped to 0.4 at the bottom in 2020 and 2025.
Next, another evaluation metric, $ETH/$BTC MVRV is also halfway between reaching the bottom seen in the 2020 cycle and the local market bottom in 2025.
In two periods, $ETH It fell to the oversold area (green) at 0.025 and then reversed. At the time of writing, this indicator is just above 0.05, suggesting that it is still a long way from providing a historical market bottom signal.
Similarly, relative $ETH/$BTC ETF holdings turned positive in the second half of the year for the first time since last year. Although ETF demand was improving, it did not fall to 2025 levels. Overall, the spot volume and Ethereum ($ETH) The realized price range showed that the altcoin is undervalued and close to its historical bottom zone. CryptoQuant concluded:
However, MVRV and exchange inflows have not yet reached the extreme levels that have historically confirmed the lower bound. the last bottom, and $ETH It may take some time before the performance exceeds the expected performance.
However, over 41 million $ETH Almost the same amount is wagered against the supply of losses, with a record stake of 33%. Whether or not Strong staking demand It remains to be seen whether downside risks will further decline.
Final summary
- Three key indicators showed that $ETH Despite being inexpensive at less than $2,000, it may not be the most durable sole.
- Staking demand will exceed 40 million in 2026, hitting a record high $ETH Currently staked, over 2.5 million $ETH I’m on the waiting list.
