Ethereum remains below $1,800 as traders await US inflation data, despite growing expectations for it to break above $1,850.
The second-largest cryptocurrency traded around $1,780 after briefly falling to $1,770 following recent geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East. Oil prices soared after a weekend strike, reigniting fears that inflation could remain high ahead of June’s CPI release and Paul Warsh’s expected parliamentary testimony.
Any surprise upside could strengthen hawkish expectations from the Fed, limit demand for risky assets and make it harder to break above the $1,800 barrier.
However, derivative positioning presents a more balanced picture than price movements alone. CoinGlass liquidation data shows that one of the largest short-term liquidation clusters is around $1,800 to $1,850, with additional liquidity near $1,900.
A decisive move above these levels would force short sellers to cover, potentially accelerating momentum towards higher resistance. On the downside, a liquidation pocket below $1,750 suggests that sellers may regain control if support fails.
Ethereum needs a confirmed breakout above $1,850 to reach higher targets
The daily chart shows that Ethereum is carving out a situation resembling a double bottom formation after rebounding from the June lows. The price is currently located directly below the horizontal resistance near $1,846, which coincides with the neckline of the pattern.
A successful breakout would predict a cautious move towards around $2,198, while the Aroon indicator favors buyers with the bullish line above 90%. Chaikin money flows are also back in positive territory, suggesting capital is gradually returning after several weeks of distributions.
Short-term momentum remains constructive, but less certain. On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum continues to trade above the supertrend support near $1,756, sustaining a series of recent lows.
At the same time, the MACD histogram weakens and the MACD line slides below the signal line, indicating that upside momentum is slowing as price approaches resistance rather than expanding into a new impulse.
Market participants are also paying attention to similar technical levels. Analyst Ali Martinez said: $ETH If it breaks through $1,850. ”
His view is consistent with the neckline resistance seen on the daily chart, and a close above that level would invalidate the recent consolidation and create the next target near $2,200.
Another level of interest is at a slightly lower level. Commenting on the latest structure, crypto analyst Ted Pillows claimed:$ETH The price remains above the $1,750 support zone. ” He added that buyers are holding to that level and believes that as long as that level is maintained, the next big move could develop to the upside.
Macro risks could quickly reverse Ethereum’s recovery
Despite the improved chart structure, macro conditions continue to determine short-term direction. Ethereum is struggling to sustain gains through 2026 as spot ETF outflows continue, declining network fee income following the Dencun upgrade, and competition from faster Layer 1 networks weigh on investor demand.
Ethereum’s annual issuance has also returned to positive territory as the network’s deflationary tendencies have weakened due to reduced fee burn.
Failure to recover $1,800 before the CPI release exposes traders to further volatility. Higher-than-expected inflation and a resurgence of the situation in the Middle East could push up yields on the US dollar and US Treasuries, reducing appetite for crypto assets.
From a technical perspective, a loss of the $1,750-$1,756 support area would invalidate the current bullish setup and increase the likelihood of a pullback towards $1,680 as deeper demand awaits around the psychologically important $1,500 level.
Conversely, a confirmation above $1,850 could trigger a liquidation of the entire leveraged short position and shift attention to the $1,900 area before focusing on the expected move towards $2,198.
