Ethereum is trading at $2,080, and while on the surface the technical picture has fallen into the bleak zone, beneath the surface it is quietly building something more interesting.
The 100-day moving average is just above the missing reference point. Although the lower bound of the ascending channel is about to collapse, the 4-hour chart depicts the possibility of a true bullish reversal pattern.
Whether that develops into something real or simply loosens up under another foot is the central question heading into June.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart
On the daily chart, prices have continued to fall since mid-May, when prices fell from the $24,000 area. $ETH is currently trading at $2,080, and its 100-day moving average is just above about $2.2,000, close enough to be relevant but consistently acting as resistance. The lower bound of the ascending white channel is barely holding and the RSI has worsened to the 35-40 range, indicating selling pressure that has not yet reached the oversold extreme.
Currently, the $1.8,000 demand zone is the main downside criterion, sitting around $280 below.
This distance may be quickly covered in case of damage to the channel bed. On the other hand, a recovery above the 100-day moving average is the minimum requirement for stabilizing the daily structure. Furthermore, regaining $2,400 would truly change Ethereum’s medium-term story. Until one of these scenarios occurs, the daily chart is just a map of strengthening support and shrinking margin of error.
$ETH/USDT 4 hour chart
The more interesting development is on the 4-hour chart, where a potential inverted head-and-shoulders pattern has formed over the past week. The left shoulder was printed at around $2.1,000, the head was formed at a low of about $2,000, and the price is currently cutting into what appears to be the right shoulder at around $2.8,000.
The neckline is at around $2.15,000, and a measured move of the pattern in the event of a breakout of the neckline is expected to be a rebound towards at least $2.25,000, but again potentially further upside towards the key $2.4,000 supply zone.
This pattern is unconfirmed and should be treated as such.
A right shoulder above the $2,000 support zone will be triggered by a subsequent 4-hour close above the $2.15,000 neckline. This is the first technically meaningful reversal signal since the correction began in early May. However, a right shoulder failure would lead to a drop below $2,000, completely invalidating the setup and paving the way for a possible move to the $1,800 zone below.
On-chain analysis
Ethereum exchange reserves are currently 14.8 million $ETH. This number puts current sell-side inventory conditions near the lowest levels in years. The current reserve level has been reached even though the price remains at $2,000. This means that the drawdown from $4.8,000 has not caused the type of currency inflows that would indicate a large capitulation or distribution by long-term holders.
Still, the slight increase from 14.4 million in early May to 14.8 million is worth monitoring. If the rally continues, it would signal that holders are starting to move supply back to exchanges at current levels, potentially adding selling pressure to the already fragile price structure. But for now, readings remain weak by historical standards, meaning that when buyers finally step in they will find an order book with less supply available than at almost any point in recent history, which could increase the chances of a recovery.
