Bitcoin is once again under selling pressure, and one chart analyst says the coming weeks could determine whether this bear market enters its final stages or falls further.
Bitcoin was rejected by resistance groups earlier this month and has since rebounded. Bitcoin has been testing structural support around $63,760 after being rejected in July, and the price is now approaching a broader zone that analysts are closely monitoring.
The analyst is keeping a very close eye on the support zone between $59,356 and $62,492, noting that failure to sustain within that range could signal that the next low has already begun.
If that happens, analysts are outlining a more bearish scenario in which Bitcoin continues to fall towards $44,000 and potentially further. A deeper bearish scenario could push Bitcoin to $44,000 or even lower, and if that path materializes, the target could be closer to $39,000 later this year.
remarkable pattern
Parallel to that bearish case, analysts also uncovered another framework. The classic accumulation pattern was first documented by market analyst Richard Wyckoff in the early 1900s. Mr. Wyckoff has spent decades studying how large investors quietly build positions when sentiment is at its worst and most individual interests are waning.
Patterns typically unfold in five phases. The initial downtrend gives way to a long and tedious consolidating range, and the price flattens out for several months as negative headlines dominate. This is often followed by a sharp final flush below previous support, designed to trigger a stop loss and drive out any remaining sellers, after which price can quickly reclaim that zone on light volume. If this recovery holds, it could mark a real low and set up a slow uptrend, followed by a full-blown breakout on strong volume.
The analyst notes that Bitcoin’s current price action has aligned fairly well with this framework so far, and if this pattern continues, Bitcoin could only need to fall a bit into the low-to-mid $50,000 range before finding substantial buying interest, which could be a much shallower move than a deeper bearish scenario.
Why is the 200-week average important?
Yet another data point stands out. Bitcoin is already down 55% from its recent highs. Historically, the 200-week moving average marks the general area where past bear market lows were formed, and Bitcoin’s current price is currently close to that level.
The analyst warned that Bitcoin could fall another 30% before the lows of this cycle fully take hold, but added that even in that scenario, the rest of the decline could play out within just the next few months, making this the shortest period of pain left in the broader downtrend.
