Bitcoin enters the weekend near $60,000 after persistent inflation, heavy ETF outflows, and a failure to defend the $59,000 to $62,000 zone. May’s PCE print gave the market a reason to sell, but the real damage came from positioning.
Core PCE rose 3.4% from a year earlier, exceeding the Fed’s 2% target but roughly in line with economists’ expectations.
The option expiry on June 26th was a structurally heavier event, with more than $10.6 billion of BTC options expiring, according to Deribit data, with about 80% of the open interest coming out of funds, with the biggest pain remaining in the low $70,000s.
With BTC trading near $60,000, the gap between spot pain and max pain reflects how much the position is stuck above the current price.
The $60,000 put strike generated approximately $450 million in open interest heading into expiration, and the market has orbited this level throughout the week. Once it expires, that overhang will disappear and the market will be able to find a cleaner base to work from.
Meaning of liquidation flush
Close to $1 billion in crypto futures liquidations occurred within 24 hours after BTC fell below $60,000, with longs absorbing the lion’s share.
Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, noted that the flush has already eliminated excessive long positions, leaving the market on a structurally cleaner basis than the $58,000 to $60,000 range suggests.
According to CoinGecko’s live data, BTC’s dominance remains close to 55%, with BTC and ETH showing strong holder conviction and suppressed sell-side supply, while selling is more concentrated in small- and mid-cap altcoins.
Blue-chip L1 and yield-producing sectors are also attracting defensive capital from investors who choose to remain productive within crypto.
Zhang frames this as capital being consolidated into higher quality assets, a pattern that has historically been seen as approaching a recovery phase, where prolonged weakness tends to cause a much broader deterioration in breadth.
During the price correction, BTC’s dominance will remain, with capital remaining selective and concentrated in the highest-conviction assets and trending towards repositioning within cryptocurrencies.
ETF channels go silent
The Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded over $1.1 billion in outflows between June 24 and 25, according to data from Pharcyde Investors. This two-day buildup created a regular selling channel visible during US trading hours, with redemptions directly reflected in spot supply.
With ETF trading suspended until June 29, the next 72 hours will test the native cryptocurrency’s liquidity as spot buyers, perpetual futures markets, and on-chain holders operate without new institutional redemption flows meeting bids.
Commenting on the July trigger, Zhang said that if ETF outflows stabilize after expiry and volatility normalizes, Bitcoin could show a stronger recovery than the current consensus suggests.
| driver | what happened | Weekend impact |
|---|---|---|
| PCE inflation | The core PCE is 3.4% compared to previous yearsticky but widely expected | Important macro backdrop, but not the main driver for the weekend |
| Option expiration date | more $10.6 billion BTC options expire and approx. 80% OTM | Removes key positioning overhangs and resets dealer/trader exposures |
| liquidation | almost 1 billion dollars Cryptocurrency futures liquidation after BTC falls below $60,000 | Suggests excessive leverage may have already been flushed |
| ETF outflow | more $1.1 billion Spot Bitcoin ETF left on June 24-25 | Selling pressure occurred during weekdays, but channel pauses on weekends |
| Advantages of BTC | BTC’s dominance is close 55% While the price is correct | Points out selective integration into higher quality crypto assets rather than complete market withdrawal |
the level that determines
BTC’s intraday low reached $58,189 on June 25th, with live data showing an intraday low near $58,319, with $58,000 to $58,300 being the immediate support band for the weekend.
A clean break below $58,000 throughout the session would indicate that sellers still have work to do.
Holding $58,000 paves the way to the psychological pivot of $60,000 and also positions the heaviest put strike from the June 26 expiration. A return to levels above $60,000 will neutralize talk of a breakdown.
The first recovery zone is between $60,600 and $61,000, close to the current intraday high of $60,621. A move above that level shows that buyers can do more than protect the wick.
From there, $62,000 becomes an important confirmation as BTC moves above $62,000 to reconstitute the weekend as a sweep below the old range, a distinction that will have important implications for the start of July.
72 hours to decide the start of July
In the bullish case, BTC holds $58,000, recovers $60,600-61,000, and pushes towards $62,000 by June 29th. This sequence supports the reading of a forced sellout, with long positions being unwound, expirations settled, and native liquidity absorbing remaining supply.
Under these circumstances, stabilizing ETF outflows could strengthen the recovery that the current consensus is pricing in cheaply and reset July positions from a cleaner base.
The $66,000 to $67,000 zone is only relevant after $62,000 is collected and retained.
In the bearish case, BTC loses $58,000 and remains below it throughout the weekend trading. This would reconfigure the recent move from the core of exhaustion to acceptance on the downside, paving the way for the next full-fledged support cluster at $53,000-$54,000.
The liquidation flash described by Chan has been suspended and further deleveraging will be needed to build a stable foundation in July.
If redemptions resume at the June 29th open and positions remain short-ish after expiration, BTC will start the week in a structurally weak position and the bullish case will be reset at a later date.
Bitcoin’s direction in July will be shaped by how flows, on-chain accumulation, and positioning behave in the next 72 hours after expiration settles. The macro data is already known and the price has been determined, but the position reset has not yet been determined.
(Tag to translate) Bitcoin
