According to Glassnode’s latest Week On-chain report, Bitcoin has entered a deep discount phase, with more than 95% of short-term holders underwater and realized losses approaching levels associated with severe capitulation.
The report also notes that a sustained recovery for Bitcoin will likely require the dollar index to fall below 99 or the 10-year US Treasury yield to compress towards 4.2%. DXY is up 2.1% in 30 days at 100.01 and the 10-year yield is 4.53%.
This makes Bitcoin’s $60,000 support a macro-dependent level, with its durability dependent on DXY and Treasury yields.
Leverage has been flushed, valuation metrics are deeply discounted, and dollar and yield settings that dominate risk appetite remain hostile.
BTC’s recovery will depend on whether macro conditions ease based on the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and June 10 CPI data.
On-chain setup
Glassnode’s AVIV Z-score reached -1.09 before settling at -1.06, placing BTC deep inside the extreme discount range compared to the cyclical average.
The AVIV ratio compares Bitcoin’s spot price to the average cost basis of active investors, excluding miners, and currently stands at 0.80. MVRV for short-term holders fell to 0.81 before recovering to 0.83, so stress for short-term holders is close to its maximum value. That means recent buyers are on average about 17% to 19% underwater.
Only 3.3% of short-term holders make a profit, with a four-year average of 55%. The realized loss behavior is close to severe yield, with an STH-SOPR z-score of -1.86, 0.14 standard deviations below the -2 level that Glassnode associates with severe yield events.
BTC absorbed a weekly decline of 7.5% to $61,700, with leveraged longs between $64,000 and $70,000 being aggressively liquidated as the price fell, leaving the liquidation profile cleaner than it was a week ago.
A discounted deleveraging market could set the stage for a recovery if buyers actually emerge to absorb that supply.
| signal | Current measurement value | Content |
|---|---|---|
| BTC weekly movement | -7.5% ~ $61,700 | Price retests $60,000 zone under pressure |
| AVIV ratio | 0.80 | BTC trades below cost basis for active investors |
| AVIV Z-score | -1.06 | Significant discount compared to 4 year cycle range |
| Short Term Holder MVRV | 0.83 | Approximately 17% of recent buyers are underwater |
| short term interest holder | 3.3% | Stress is near maximum. 4 year average is 55% |
| STH-SOPR Z-Score | -1.86 | Close to severe yield threshold of -2 |
| Clearance zone cleared | $64,000-$70,000 | Leverage flushed from recent range |
Where the demand is
Coinbase premium remained in discount territory throughout the move towards $60,000, indicating that US spot demand has faded as BTC is sold off.
The previous pullback triggered aggressive bullish buying from Coinbase-related investors. The current correction does not draw an equivalent scale.
The financial accumulation of companies that supported BTC with over $500 million in inflows per day between April and May has slowed sharply since early June, and the pace of daily purchases is now a fraction of that amount.
One-week at-the-money implied volatility rose above 60% at one point and then settled at near 50%, while one-month implied volatility rose from about 34% to 45% and six-month implied volatility rose from about 40% to 44%.
Volatility risk premiums remain positive, options markets are pricing in more forward movement than recent spot trading warrants, and implied volatility exceeds realized volatility.
The 1-month 25 delta skew increased from approximately 11% to 24%, and the 3-month and 6-month skews increased to 18% and 14%, respectively. Put buying represented 32.4% of the premium over the seven-day period and 35.9% over the last 24 hours tracked by Glassnode.
The combination of weakening spot demand, slowing Treasury savings, and an options market that has priced in significant downside prices shows why undervalued markets can remain undervalued.
| Demand/risk signals | latest reading | Market impact |
|---|---|---|
| coinbase premium | still in discount territory | U.S. spot demand is not actively buying momentum |
| treasury savings | Significant decrease from over $500 million per day | Corporate demand, which supported April-May, has weakened. |
| 1 week ATM implied volatility | Temporarily >60%, now ~50% | Traders are pricing in short-term disruption |
| 1 month implied volatility | ~34% → ~45% | Medium-term risk expectations are increasing |
| 6-month implied volatility | ~40% → ~44% | Long-term uncertainty also increases |
| 25 delta skew in 1 month | ~11% → ~24% | Options markets are paying a price for downside protection |
| Premium Put Buy Share | 32.4% in 7 days. 35.9% in the last 24 hours | Defensive positioning continues to dominate |
macro state
Glassnode states that the inverse relationship between the dollar and cryptocurrencies that defined 2022-2023 has been reconfirmed.
The report explains that a DXY above 100 and a 10-year yield above 4.5% is a historically compressed configuration of speculative risk premiums.
The 2-year yield is 4.14%, the 10-year yield is 4.53%, and the 10-2 year spread is +0.39%, a curve that Glassnode views as consistent with a late-cycle environment.
DXY was up 0.8% week-on-week and 2.1% over the past 30 days, but this sustained auction has accelerated liquidity tightening and raised the opportunity cost of holding speculative assets comfortably. If the dollar strengthens and Treasury yields remain at current levels, Bitcoin will compete with higher risk-free rates, and a stronger dollar will amplify costs.
Glassnode’s recovery threshold is defined as DXY below 99, or around 4.2% over 10 years, indicating the level at which headwinds meaningfully reverse.
The May CPI data, released on June 10, will give the market its first indication of whether the Fed’s inflation situation has moved enough to change its interest rate forecasts.
The June FOMC meeting, to be held June 16-17, includes a summary of economic forecasts and is the most important short-term event for the interest rate path and the direction of the dollar. The next CPI release will cover June data and is scheduled for July 14th.
Bitcoin’s next acceptance or rejection will be made from these data points and the bond market’s reaction to them, for which on-chain work has already been completed.
| scenario | macro trigger | Expected Bitcoin reaction | what to see |
|---|---|---|---|
| bull case | DXY break less than 99 or the 10-year yield is compressed. 4.2% | Spot Demand Returns, Coinbase Premium Improvements, Options Skew Normalization | CPI softens, FOMC forecasts are dovish, US Treasury yields fall |
| basic case | DXY is nearby 100 And 10 years remain 4.5% | BTC price drops to around $60,000 without confirmation of recovery | Government bond market reaction after FOMC |
| bear case | DXY stays on top 100 and 10Y stays above 4.5% | Recent buyers agreed. 60,000 USD absorbs the sell-off due to weak demand | STH-SOPR moves towards or below -2 |
| black swan | DXY spikes after CPI/FOMC, yields rise further | Macros overwhelm on-chain discounts. BTC falls below support | Strong Inflation Surprise, Hawkish Fed Dot Plot, Risk-Off Dollar Bid |
Two possible paths forward
Spot demand has room to recover if DXY falls below 99 or the 10-year is compressed towards 4.2% due to CPI softening, a dovish turn in the FOMC outlook, or increased risk-on rotation.
Coinbase premiums may recover, Treasury accumulation may resume, and options skew may normalize.
BTC’s on-chain discount sets up a re-rating, and assets that have already completed a deleveraging cycle tend to be the first to re-price as liquidity conditions ease.
If DXY and 10-years maintain current levels, recent buyers will capitulate. The STH-SOPR Z-score approaches or breaches the severe capitulation threshold of -2, corporate treasury capital inflows remain subdued, and the $60,000 zone absorbs additional selling into the demand void.
Bitcoin could remain cheap on-chain for an extended period of time if the macro environment squeezes marginal buyers in price.
Whether Bitcoin hits a macro bottom depends on what happens in Washington over the next seven days.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
