Bitcoin briefly peaked above $80,000 during Asian hours before falling to $79,000. At the time of writing, the top cryptocurrency by market value was still up 0.4% on a 24-hour basis.
The CoinDesk 20 index rose 0.4%, with Ethereum (ETH) up nearly 1% and modest gains. $XRP ($XRP) and Solana (SOL).
According to Marex analysts, level maps are more important than stories at the moment.
“80k is a psychological barrier. A clean break and hold of it turns this into a momentum trade with room for extension. The rejection and fade stays in the same range logic, leading to profit taking towards the mid-$70s,” they said in an email.
“This is exactly where traders are watching to see if spot demand continues to drive up offers, or if most of the movement is positioning,” they added.
Thanks to the global market’s risk-on sentiment and strong market flows, a significant break above $80,000 is still likely.
“The factors are simple: stocks are strong on the back of AI and mega-cap gains, and cryptocurrencies are riding that risk-on impulse. At the same time, institutional demand is clearly coming back in,” Marex analysts said.
“The strong inflows into ETFs over the weekend indicate that real money is buying rather than dampening the breakout attempt,” they added. Marex Crypto is the institutional division of Marex Group plc, a diversified financial services company.
The 11 U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted more than $600 million on Friday, bringing institutional demand to a total of $3.29 billion over the past two months, according to data source SosoValue.
“Spot ETF inflows also continue to be supported, with net inflows of approximately $163 million last week. Although there were notable outflows from April 27-29, likely related to month-end rebalancing and basis trade adjustments, , Friday’s inflows of around $630 million more than offset earlier outflows,” said the market insights team at Singapore-based QCP Capital, one of Asia’s largest digital asset trading firms.
Despite this supportive backdrop, analysts pointed to several key risks that could pose headwinds.
First, RiskOnRally could come under new pressure if tensions between the United States and Iran escalate again. The two countries have been in peace talks for weeks with no breakthrough, while energy markets remain sensitive to disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for the world’s crude oil.
Under these circumstances, US President Donald Trump has suggested the possibility of imposing tariffs on countries that purchase Iranian crude oil.
“Trade tensions are escalating and global markets are entering a phase of greater fragmentation. The US has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China if it continues to buy Iranian oil, but China has reacted defiantly. At the same time, President Trump has increased tariffs on EU cars to 25%, putting pressure on transatlantic relations.”
Second, persistent security risks in decentralized finance (DeFi) threaten widespread adoption.
But for now, the situation is simple. Stocks are doing well, ETF inflows are rising, and Bitcoin is riding on both. Be alert!
More information: For an analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Today’s Crypto Market. For a comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
what is trending
- President Trump launches ‘Project Freedom’ to escort ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz (New York Times): US President Donald Trump has announced that the US military will begin guiding stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s parliament warned that the move would be considered a violation of the ceasefire.
- Strategy suspends Bitcoin purchases before Tuesday’s close (CoinDesk): Strategy skips weekly trades $BTC It was purchased ahead of Tuesday’s first-quarter results, marking the second hiatus this year. With Wall Street expecting a loss per share, the durability of Saylor’s funding engine is in the spotlight.
- Morgan Stanley’s Oldenburg: Bitcoin will be on U.S. banks’ balance sheets, but not yet (CoinDesk): Morgan Stanley’s new Bitcoin ETP raised more than $100 million from fully autonomous clients in its first six days before advisors began offering it. Amy Oldenburg said banks will eventually have Bitcoin on their balance sheets, but given the Fed’s guidance and Basel rules, that means it’s still a long way off.
- Why Most People Lose in Prediction Markets — Except for a Few Sharks (Wall Street Journal): An analysis of 1.6 million Polymarket accounts found that 0.1% of traders took home 67% of all profits, while more than 70% of users lost money. Algorithmic companies with huge data budgets dominate, while ordinary users routinely drain their money.
today’s signal
The chart shows Bitcoin’s weekly price movements in candlestick format.
Early morning today, $BTC It tested the resistance at $80,619. This is the level at which the November decline lost momentum and paved the way for a rebound.
A decisive break above this level would strengthen the view that the recent rally is part of a broader uptrend and could open the door to $85,000. However, failure to break out could stall the rally, putting the market at risk of renewed selling pressure.
$BTCSo it’s on a make or break level.
