Bitcoin rises 3% due to low oil prices, but rebound is capped at $65,000

Bitcoin rose about 3% to $64,300 as oil prices fell below $72, and reports that the U.S. and Iran will continue peace talks revived risk appetite across the crypto market.

The rebound followed two volatile sessions in which WTI oil prices rose towards $75 and Bitcoin fell towards $62,500 due to renewed attacks on Iranian targets by the US and attacks by Iran on US military bases.

President Donald Trump declared the interim ceasefire “over,” but subsequent reports of continued negotiations helped widen oil losses on Thursday. WTI remains on track for a weekly gain of more than 4%, with traders wary of another geopolitical reversal.

U.S. macro statistics provided support after economic growth in June was limited to 57,000 people. Weak data raised expectations that the Federal Reserve would accelerate rate cuts, while comments from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh that inflation risks had eased pushed Treasury yields and the dollar lower. Bitcoin benefited as investors returned to non-yielding assets.

Glassnode data shows that spot selling pressure has eased after a long distribution phase, while the Coinbase Premium Index rose as demand recovered in the US. The market also absorbed the $216 million Bitcoin sale that Strategies reported earlier this week without breaking out of the $60,000 region before buyers returned.

Bitcoin needs a close of $65,000 to extend the rebound

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin broke above $63,000 and reached an intraday high near $64,480. Approximately $79.5 million in short-term liquidations took place in 24 hours, driven by traders buying back bearish positions, according to CoinGlass data. $BTC Higher.

In the three-day liquidation heatmap, the closest large leverage pocket is located around $64,700 to $65,000, directly above the current price.

The Fibonacci structure drawn from $67,311 to $57,806 results in a 23.6% retracement at $65,068, with $63,681 acting as the first support. A 4-hour close above $65,000 would clear both the Fibonacci barrier and the daily resistance line near $65,006.

Analyst Ted Pillows said:$BTC It has returned to the $64,000-$65,000 resistance zone. ” Pillows added that a successful recall could send Bitcoin toward $68,000, but another rejection could send the asset back to $62,000.

Momentum has improved, but the chart does not confirm a permanent trend reversal. The 4-hour Aroon upside reached 100%, the Aroon downside reached 21.43%, and the supertrend turned green at the support near $61,945.

On the daily chart, the MACD line is above the signal line, but both remain below zero, and as the buying pressure returns, Chaikin Money Flow has risen to 0.10.

A loss of $62,000 will result in another fall.

The same heatmap shows a tight liquidation band around $61,000 to $61,200, which could lead to a decline in price if Bitcoin fails at $65,000. The next chart levels are at $62,559, $61,437, and $59,840. A break below the supertrend support at $61,945 could weaken the recovery and push the late June benchmark closer to $58,000.

Cryptocurrency trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin remains close to the weekly 200-period moving average and the high time frame support zone. He cautioned that a close of one week below the average would have led to a quick recovery, but a close below about $55,000 could accelerate the decline.

Geopolitics remains a major external risk. A renewed attack near the Strait of Hormuz could send oil higher and the dollar stronger, reversing the move toward risk assets. Bitcoin is above $63,681 for now, but bulls still need a definitive close above $65,000 before a rebound aims for $68,000.