According to Glassnode, Bitcoin remains in extreme value territory after trading below two major on-chain cost-based levels for nearly five months. The company said: $BTC remains below the true market average of around $76,600 and short-term holder cost basis of around $72,200.
These levels are important because they track the average price paid by active investors and recent buyers. When Bitcoin trades below both, many market participants will hold the coin at a loss. Glassnode said this stage could support long-term accumulation, but it has not yet confirmed the bottom of the market.
Bitcoin recently rebounded from about $58,300 to $64,400. Although this movement showed strength in the short term, it did not yield results. $BTC It exceeded the main recovery level. “Evidence suggests that this process is nearing a later stage,” Glassnord said, but cautioned that it could not rule out that the realized price could be closer to $53,000.
With this setup, the focus will be on whether Bitcoin price can regain the $72,200 and $76,600 areas. Until then, $BTC Still under selling pressure and weak risk appetite.
Long-term holders still realize losses
According to data from Glassnode, realized losses among long-term holders have increased sharply since February. Losses for long-term holders as a percentage of total realized value rose to 43% from 15% in early February.
This group includes investors who bought near cycle highs and held through months of drawdowns. Some companies are now exiting as the bear market has lasted longer than expected. Glassnode stated that these sellers are a major force in preventing Bitcoin from recovering to higher levels.
Daily long-term holders recently realized losses amounting to around $280 million. This was the highest level since December 2022. The company said the pressure has not yet subsided enough to confirm that sellers are exhausted.
The coming weeks could be key for this indicator. A steady decline in realized losses would indicate that long-term holders are selling less. Without this change, Bitcoin’s recovery may remain limited.
Institutional investor demand slumps due to ETF outflows
Bitcoin ETF flows also remain a weakness. According to Glassnode, the Spot Bitcoin ETF’s 30-day average net flows improved from approximately $193 million in daily outflows to $88.9 million. Still, flows remain negative.
crypto.news reported that the US Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows of approximately $4.5 billion in June. According to the report, June was the worst month for the product since its launch in January 2024.
There has been some relief since then. crypto.news reported that the Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows of $221.7 million on July 2, ending a 10-day streak of outflows. This was followed by approximately $2.7 billion in withdrawals over the previous 10 trading sessions.
However, Glassnode said ETF trading volumes remained weak. The ETF’s daily trading volume ranges from $650 million to $950 million, about 80% below its October 2025 peak. This shows that institutional demand is not completely stable.
Options data shows caution despite shorting decline
Derivatives data paint a mixed picture. According to Glassnode, the open interest put/call ratio for options fell to 0.56, the lowest level in 2026. This means that a trader holds far fewer puts than calls.
This change suggests that short selling demand has eased. It also shows that traders have shed some defensive positions following Bitcoin’s recent rally. Still, options markets continue to price in demand for downside protection.
crypto.news reported that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF flow drought has eased recently while Bitcoin is giving off new bullish signals. The update added to signs that parts of the market are looking to stabilize after a heavy selloff.
Glassnode stated that Bitcoin may be in the late stages of a bear market bottoming process. However, the report said finalization still requires three conditions: reduced selling by long-term owners, stable ETF flows, and a recovery above key cost base levels. Until these signals appear simultaneously, Bitcoin’s bottom will remain unconfirmed.
