Bitcoin’s recent rebound I haven’t done much to resolve the dispute Among crypto analysts about where this cycle actually stands now.
According to technical analysis published on deeper institutional involvement; A more controlled trading environment. However, the outlook for this analysis is as follows. The decline is not yet complete.
The familiar Bitcoin script reappears
that concept of analysis The Bitcoin price continues to move through the same emotional and structural framework from one cycle to the next. In that framework, the Bitcoin price first attempts a parabolic rise, then enters circulation, undergoes a sharp decline, goes through a misleading recovery phase, and eventually reaches a final capitulation.
This is the same pattern seen in 2018 and 2022, with 2026 now occupying the same late-stage position in these figures with greater volume and lower volatility.
These timing factors are important and could help the bearish situation expand in the coming months. History shows that previous cycle bottoms occurred a year after the all-time high, not immediately after the first major decline. According to this logic, it is still too early for Bitcoin price to hit a lasting bottom. This is especially true if we consider the October 2025 high at $126,080 as the peak of this cycle.
Where does Bitcoin go from here?
Technical structures are only part of the story. technical analysis A cryptocurrency analyst known as BLADE on social media platform
Glassnode’s net unrealized profits/losses Measure whether or not. The network relies on aggregated profits or losses. The further away you get from 0, the closer the market tends to be to extreme extremes. What this means is that the true cycle lows are usually reached when investors have suffered much deeper pain and sentiment has become miserable.
CryptoQuant said: As of April 1, despite increased institutional buying, Bitcoin spot demand is still significantly depressed. This means that the market’s internal strength has not fully caught up with the headline demand from large allocators and the Bitcoin price may continue to rise. Fight until it happens.
There is also an interesting template that Bitcoin could follow based on the two previous major bear markets. The bull market peaked in 2017 and then turned into a bear market, ultimately falling about 84% from top to bottom. The 2021 cycle followed a similar script, with Bitcoin ending with a downside decline of around 77%.
At its current price of around $74,680, Bitcoin is trading 40.8% below its October high, meaning there could be more declines to come. Moreover, previous bear market bottoms were reached approximately 360 to 370 days after the previous cycle peak. This sequence points to a potential cycle bottom somewhere in the third or fourth quarter of 2026.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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