Since the start of the Iran War in 2026, Bitcoin has outperformed gold by about 35-36% on a relative basis. $BTC Gold fell, rising mid-single digits. $BTC/Gold ratio has skyrocketed.
According to data from multiple market trackers, Bitcoin ($BTC) significantly outperformed gold. Binance’s research feed stated this bluntly in early May: “Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 36% since the start of the Iran conflict.” $BTC/XAU ratio rather than just the absolute price change.
$BTC/As the war intensifies, the gold ratio soars.
A mid-March analysis in Fortune magazine noted that “the yuan has rallied about 7% since the war began, trading at about $71,000 on Wednesday,” while gold was “nearly unchanged at about $5,240 an ounce.” A subsequent survey by the Korea Economic News compiled by Bloomingbit found that Bitcoin rose about 7% in March, while gold fell more than 3%, with the gap in performance widening as the conflict dragged on.
A summary from CryptoNews.net at the time shows a similar pattern with slightly sharper numbers. At the beginning of the war, when Donald Trump ordered the US military to join the attack on Israel, $BTC It was around $65,492 per ounce and gold was around $5,279. By March 23, Bitcoin had risen to $70,700, while gold had fallen to about $4,300. That means $BTC Gold fell by about 18%, while gold rose by about 8%. $BTC/gold ratio.
The first real “war test” for Bitcoin as a macro asset
The difference this time is that not only did Bitcoin outperform, but it outperformed in the middle of a firefight in which traditional safe havens usually prevail. A Phemex detailer claims that the Iran conflict was “Bitcoin’s first real-world stress test as a portfolio-level safe-haven asset” and that in the first 16 days $BTC It outperformed gold by 9 percentage points and even outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
JPMorgan analysts cited by RootData and The Block said that during the war, “Bitcoin outperformed gold and silver and was showing signs of increased capital inflows and activity, while the precious metal faced significant outflows and position liquidations.” They pointed out that gold ETF outflows compared to net inflows into Bitcoin products amounted to nearly $11 billion, a complete reversal of historical silver ETF inflows. This aligns with crypto.news’ previous reporting on how Bitcoin and Ethereum outperformed metals and stocks as a spot in March. $BTC U.S. ETFs continued to absorb demand from institutional investors amid geopolitical tensions.
A Capital.com breakdown compiled by the Economic Times highlights: $BTC Still trading like a high-beta macro asset in the first few hours after the initial strike, it plummeted from around $66,000 to $63,000 as more than $128 billion in crypto market capitalization disappeared, while gold soared. But throughout the dispute period, Bitcoin recovered and rallied, supported by ETF buying, short covering and renewed interest in “digital gold,” while gold’s initial surge evaporated under the weight of a stronger dollar and rising real yields.
For now, the scoreboard is clear: in the first months of the Iran war, the portfolio was long $BTC And if you go short gold, you will outperform the classic “my gold in a crisis” stance by about a third. Whether that holds true for the next geopolitical shock is an open question, but this episode provided one of the strongest empirical arguments to date for Bitcoin’s role as a competing macro hedge.
