Midway through the second quarter, the market is already pricing in end-of-quarter targets.
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin ($BTC) The 10% increase so far could be just the early stages of a setup similar to 2025, where Q2 ended with a 30% increase. If you repeat this structure, $BTC It’s still possible to end the second quarter in the $85,000 to $90,000 range. In that case, the $65,000 to $70,000 zone would stand out as a local bottom for this cycle.
The key question here is whether the on-chain signal supports that range as a potential local bottom. At the macro level, $BTC The week started below the $75,000 level, with renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, adding pressure to the “bottom” view. That pressure is now starting to show up in on-chain metrics as well.
As the graph shows, $BTC We haven’t seen any real surrender yet.
From a long-term holder’s perspective, only 28.89% currently have unrealized losses, and when this number reaches the 40-45% range, it has historically caused panic and marked the beginning of an accumulation phase. Technically speaking, it is $BTC There may still be room for further declines before hitting the bottom. And since the macro FUD is still there, the structure is not actually disabled yet.
Additionally, derivatives are starting to look a bit far-fetched. Coinglass data shows: $BTC The number of longs outnumbers the number of shorts by about 3:2. This means the market is still bullish on leverage. Taken together, macro FUD, weak technicals, and crowded longs suggest the market remains vulnerable. The risk of capitulation is not yet a concern as the LTH is still underwater for part of the journey. This puts the $65,000 to $70,000 range under pressure.
Naturally, the following questions arise: Is Bitcoin’s Q2 target of $85,000-$90,000 too ambitious?
Bitcoin faces bearish pressure but remains strong
Liquidity in risk-off markets can influence both directions depending on positioning.
From a technical perspective, the stablecoin market cap just hit a new high of $320 billion, an increase of about $5 billion in one week. Risk-off settings often mean capital is sitting on the sidelines as “dry powder.”
However, Bitcoin is up 4.35% over the same period, and liquidity appears to be on the rise again. $BTC Instead of leaving it parked. Meanwhile, the stablecoin’s dominance has declined by more than 1%, printing four red candles in a row and returning to early March levels. $BTC Advantage increased by more than 1% within the same window.
According to AMBCrypto, the advantages of stablecoins and $BTC Dominance is remarkable. Historically, this type of setup has signaled a rotation of capital from defensive positioning to “risk,” and this structure often supports Bitcoin’s continued upward momentum.
In this context, rise $BTC Long leverage may actually reflect strategic positioning.
The logic is simple. Despite bearish pressure across multiple indicators, $BTC While the dominance of stablecoins is decreasing, their dominance is increasing. At the same time, liquidity across stablecoins continues to expand, suggesting that capital may already be returning to Bitcoin.
If this trend continues, $BTC It could pass through FUD, trigger FOMO, and help establish a stronger bottom, making it an important trend to watch for Bitcoin’s Q2 outlook.
Final summary
- Macro FUD, weak technicals, and crowded long positions keep Bitcoin vulnerable, with the $65,000 to $70,000 range under pressure.
- The decline and rise of stablecoin dominance $BTC This dominance could signal early upward momentum for Bitcoin’s Q2 outlook.
