The bullish impulse in the Bitcoin market has run out and Bitcoin is now in circulation. This is evidenced by investors increasingly selling on strength rather than increasing exposure.
According to this week’s Bitfinex Alpha report, both flow data and on-chain dynamics indicate: $BTC It has emerged from the accumulation phase that drove the rally earlier this year. This signals the beginning of a period of intense selling pressure. $BTC It will fall to levels last seen in early to mid-2024.
Bitcoin enters circulation system
Bitcoin has already fallen below $60,000 on June 5th due to massive outflows from spot exchange traded funds (ETFs) and persistent macroeconomic headwinds. The asset has rebounded and surpassed that level over the past two days, but analysts believe this recovery may be masking a more important change behind the scenes: a shift to distribution.
In last week’s downturn, $BTC This price is also a 53% drawdown from its October 2025 all-time high (ATH), a 28.5% decline from levels recorded in mid-May, and a 20% plunge from June’s monthly opening price. $BTC It failed to maintain the $60,000 floor that has been the deciding factor for prices since February.
and $BTC Having retreated into the consolidation zone in Q1 2026, the asset faces two scenarios. The best-case scenario is a range between $60,000 and $72,000. The worst-case scenario, on the other hand, is price discovery at levels not seen since the maturation of the spot ETF market.
$BTC face the worst case scenario
Analysts say the worst-case scenario would unfold if: $BTC Consistently exceeds $60,000. Due to factors such as ETF outflows and Strategies, Bitcoin’s current movement is already limited to its historical low range. $BTC sale.
Other factors contributing to Bitcoin’s current price trend include rising energy prices, better-than-expected labor market data, and tightening financial conditions by the Federal Reserve. However, the most important factor is the contraction in spot demand, as seen in the sharp reversal in the spot cumulative trading volume delta.
“Spot cumulative volume delta has moved into a clearly negative regime, reaching depths reminiscent of the large liquidations seen in February. The data confirms that active distribution, especially by recent buyers, is now the dominant force in the exchange’s order book,” the analyst explained.
Similar to the previous distribution phase, $BTC A return to an accumulation regime can only occur if sustained spot demand returns.
