Bitcoin’s brief rally above $73,000 over the past day is familiar to anyone who has seen fast, noisy, bear market rallies go awry, with the air of price performance that could yet fade.
What is different this time is that instead of printing prices, there is a growing array of signals indicating a possible transition from the peak of negative momentum.
For context, the Swiss Block momentum framework showed that Bitcoin is climbing out of the deep negative zone that tends to appear near major transition periods.
According to the company,
“We are emerging from the peak of negative momentum, a transition period that often precedes a change of government. The key test now is simple: can momentum consolidate and sustain above +0.5? The +0.5 zone is the point of no return, where caution begins to give way to expansion.”
This is because several market indicators for leading digital assets, including those related to ETF demand and selling behavior, are all improving at the same time.
But none of this declares a new bull market on its own. Instead, we outline the initial conditions for regime change if improvements are sustained.
This is why CryptoQuant continues to insist that the Bitcoin situation remains bearish despite the current uptrend. The company’s Bullish Score Index remains at an extremely low 10 out of 100, indicating that the broader indicators associated with a bullish regime have not recovered.
This division is important because markets often start changing before they look healthy. Today’s bullish situation is not necessary for a change of government. Improvement is necessary to stop the deterioration, and then improvement must be sustained.
Demand is on an improving trend as the deterioration in demand has stopped.
The clearest signal of what has changed is not a sudden spike in new buying. Mitigating the contraction in spot demand, or moving from a bad situation to a not-so-bad situation, may be more important than we think.
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin “apparent demand” estimates suggest that spot demand contraction has improved from around -136,000 BTC in early 2026 to around -25,000 BTC in recent days.
The timing coincides with Bitcoin establishing support since early February, and this change looks less like a breakout and more like early evidence that the market can absorb supply without continuing to fall.
Although -25,000 BTC is still negative, this nuance is important because BTC trends often begin with weaker demand, compressed volatility, and price becoming more sensitive to gradual changes in flows.
That’s the stage where the rally can start to behave more like an early buildup than a purely mechanical squeeze.
Another part of the demand landscape is the resurgence of US-led bidding.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium, which measures US-based buying pressure, has risen from deep negative territory in early February to its most positive level since October, according to CryptoQuant.
Notably, this was led by the Spot Bitcoin ETF, which saw net inflows of approximately $917 million in the first week of this month.
This marks a significant departure from its performance in the first two months of the year, when it recorded net outflows of more than $1.8 billion.
From a practical perspective, this suggests that marginal buyers are returning to US spot demand as the market tests the limits of the regime.
Prices may fluctuate rapidly as selling pressure eases and supply dries up.
There doesn’t necessarily have to be a rush of new buyers for prices to rise. Once the market stops leaking supply, stock prices could rise sharply.
CryptoQuant data suggests that traders’ selling pressure has subsided after unrealized losses reached levels last seen in July 2022.
If a large portion of the trader is already underwater, there is often less incentive to sell on margin. Capitulation can deplete short-term supply, causing prices to rise even if demand increases less.
At the same time, long-term holders also appear to be slowing down their selling activity.
Selling by long-term holders has slowed to its lowest 30-day pace since June 2025, dropping from about 904,000 BTC in late November to about 276,000 BTC in recent days, according to CryptoQuant data.
That doesn’t guarantee a new bull market. But it removes one of the most persistent bear market accelerators: steady distributions from holders who buy far cheaper and sell harder.
It also explains why the momentum model quickly reverses once demand stabilizes, as supply pressure is no longer pushing down each time it rises.
Resistance level is twice that of the regime test
The short-term battlefield is clear and the levels are not arbitrary.
CryptoQuant points to the trader on-chain realized price floor of $79,000 as the first major resistance level, a level that has historically served as a ceiling during bearish phases.
Beyond that, there is a larger hurdle at around $90,000, close to the exact on-chain realization price for traders that capped the price during the previous rally earlier this year.
These levels are important because they approximate where the cost base of the active cohort is.
In a bear market, the group often sells a pullback to get back to even, turning the cost base into resistance. In a bull market, once the price regains its level, previous resistance levels are held as support and behavior may change.
Therefore, any price movement above $73,000 is not the finish line. approach to the line.
If Bitcoin can break above $79,000 and sustain it as demand continues to improve, it would strengthen the argument that momentum is shifting to an expansionary regime.
If it is rejected and momentum cannot sustain above the Swiss bloc’s +0.5 threshold, this rally risks being dismissed as another bailout rally.
Three Pathways for the Next 4-12 Weeks
As Bitcoin looks to break out of negative momentum, its next steps will likely be determined by whether the market can maintain its improvement, rather than headlines.
One of the consequences is a failed flip. Momentum is not above the Swiss bloc threshold of +0.5, spot demand remains negative and ETF flows are flat.
Here, BTC price will likely reject near $79,000 and return to the recent support zone, a reset that fits the bear market structure.
The second result is chop and base. Momentum remains near the threshold, with apparent demand slowly improving but not turning positive and flows remaining mixed.
In this case, the price of BTC will fluctuate for several weeks, building a foundation that makes the subsequent breakout more reliable, even if it tests your patience.
The third outcome is true regime change. Momentum remains above +0.5 for several weeks, apparent demand turns positive, ETF inflows persist, and derivatives pricing becomes less defensive.
Price regains $79,000, challenges $90,000, and begins to convert former holdouts into supporters, a hallmark of structural change.
For now, this rise is best understood as an attempt at transition. Selling pressure is easing. Demand is stabilizing. Momentum is about to shift to a higher regime. The proof is deceptively simple: it’s not that Bitcoin can skyrocket, it can sustain itself.
(Tag Translation)Bitcoin
