Despite negative factors such as the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran and the sell-off at Strategy, Bitcoin, which had remained at the $62,000 support level, surged after lower-than-expected US inflation data, approaching $64,000.
However, this may not indicate a reversal of the uptrend.
At the moment, Wintermute analysts said that Bitcoin has passed the worst period, but a trend reversal has not yet been confirmed.
Analysts at crypto market maker Wintermute said in their latest weekly review that despite negative factors such as the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran and Strategies, $BTC The sales kept Bitcoin holding the $62,000 support line, but a full recovery is yet to be confirmed.
Wintermute noted an important development: the spot has continued to shed for eight consecutive weeks. $BTC ETFs have finally started seeing inflows. But analysts cautioned that the week’s inflows should not be seen as the start of a new uptrend just yet.
According to Wintermute, two preconditions are expected for a market recovery and bottom formation: “a stable market structure that prevents a chain reaction of liquidations during bad news, and improved spot ETF flows.” Both of these are now met.
strategy facts $BTC The selling had little impact on the market, and the holding of the $62,000 support level is also seen as a positive sign of a bottom formation.
Even though these criteria have been met and the downtrend has been broken, Wintermute insists we need to wait before saying the market has entered a recovery phase.
He said there are important variables to watch to determine whether the recovery continues and whether trends are changing. These are listed as “US CPI Data and Subsequent Fed Stance.” $BTC ETF inflows will continue, and so will the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. ”
Analysts say a decline in the CPI, an aggressive Fed, sustainable ETF inflows and progress on transparency laws could spark a full-fledged recovery.
“So, the current situation shows that although the market decline has stopped, the recovery has not yet begun. The triggers are the CPI data, the lack of expected continued ETF inflows, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz ahead of Monday’s oil ban.”
Wintermute concluded that while Bitcoin appears to have stopped its downtrend for now, it is too early to say that a strong uptrend has begun. The direction of the market will become clearer in the coming days, depending on upcoming macroeconomic indicators and whether investor interest persists.
*This is not investment advice.
