Cryptocurrency analysts are divided on whether the market will experience a major decline in Bitcoin in May, a pattern seen in the past two bear markets during the US midterm elections.
In May 2018, Bitcoin plummeted from nearly $10,000 to around $7,000 by the end of the month. The same thing happened in May 2022, when Bitcoin fell by nearly 30%, from about $40,000 to $28,500, and fell even further in June to $20,000.
2026 is also a bear market year, coinciding with the US midterm elections, and there are concerns that the same thing will happen again.
“The cruelest pattern in the history of Bitcoin. No one wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect: Midterm election year. Bitcoin crash. Every time,” said Marlin Enkeler, a crypto analyst. said on sunday.
Enkeler said a similar move could emerge in Bitcoin. prices collapse Even though up to $33,000 Promotion of major lawsthe CLARITY Act, the Trump administration’s positive crypto sentiment, and the possibility of a trade deal between the US and China.
Joanne Wesson, Founder and CEO of AlphaRactal, also spoke on Sunday. that If Bitcoin stays below $78,000, a new capitulation phase is likely as the bears are “showing signs of strength.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $76,900, down 5.6% over the past seven days.
Analysts claim calendar did not cause previous crashes
Jeff Coe, principal analyst at the CoinEx exchange, told Cointelegraph on Monday that the midterm election year coincides with a major bear market in Bitcoin, “so some traders may be tempted to frame 2026 as a new ‘May sell’ setup.”
However, he said that behind that historical seasonality were more specific macro factors, such as the Mt. Gox aftermath, China’s ICO crackdown, Fed tightening, and the Terra/FTX collapse.
“The calendar did not cause these drawdowns, it was specific shocks that caused them.”
Ko said he does not expect BTC to repeat the 70% to 80% drawdowns seen in past cycles as the market structure has fundamentally changed.
He added, “The introduction of spot ETFs, the corporate treasury, and the CLARITY Act passed by Congress have meaningfully expanded and institutionalized the buyer base compared to past cycles.”
“In my view, a rally to the mid-$60,000s or low-$50,000s could be defensible under a macro shock or significant ETF outflow cascade. But a return to $33,000 would require a break from something truly systemic, not just a repeat of historical seasonality.”
Major support levels need to be maintained
MN Fund founder Michael van de Poppe was also bullish. I’m saying X Sunday said that while Bitcoin’s current price trend is “not crying out for new lows,” it is “steady after a 40% rise.”
However, he cautioned that the key support level currently preventing a significant decline is the $76,000 area.
“Once that level is lost, we expect the market to fall further towards the lower bound,” he said.
Traders are focusing on key support levels that need to hold. Source: Michael van de Poppe
