In his latest analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) price movements, respected cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted the “bear market resistance band” and the 200-week moving average (MA) as key factors in determining market direction.
Cowen said Bitcoin is currently in a “damn it if you do it, damn it if you don’t” situation.
Benjamin Cowen pointed out that historical cycles show that Bitcoin repeatedly tested this resistance band during bear markets and was generally rejected from it. He noted that the current outlook places this resistance band between the upside breakout of $70,000 and $74,000, and that Bitcoin remaining below this area will maintain downside risk.
“We saw a drop of $10,000 in a week,” Cowen said, citing Bitcoin’s sharp decline in June, when it started the week at $73,000 and ended the week at $63,000. “This resistance band is putting downward pressure on the trend, while the 200-week moving average is trying to form support on the upside. Bitcoin is currently struggling to find direction between these two levels.”
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Cowen points out that unlike investors who believe the market has “been past its lowest point,” the fact that prices have not yet fallen below realized levels is noteworthy, arguing that four-year market cycles need to be adhered to. Referring to capitulation periods in past cycles (late 2014, 2018, 2022), the renowned analyst said there remains a possibility of testing lower levels later this year.
Cowen said that historical data shows that Bitcoin typically forms a local bottom at the beginning of the summer (June), followed by a rebound rally in the second half of the summer (July-August), and made the following predictions:
In both 2018 and 2022, the market, which was weak in June, showed signs of upward adjustment from mid-July to late July. If Bitcoin can hold the 200-week moving average as support, we could see a short-term rebound similar to 2022 in July.
Cowen also touched on the altcoin market in his analysis, recalling that while Bitcoin was flat during the 2018 cycle, altcoins crashed in July. The analyst noted a sharp decline in interest in cryptocurrencies on social media and warned that declining consumer interest could continue to put pressure on altcoins, despite the presence of hundreds of thousands of altcoins on the market.
*This is not investment advice.
