This week’s Bitfinex Alpha report revealed that Bitcoin typically has a 5-6 month bear market window where it trades below the realized price for short-term holders. Months 5 and 6 are the final stages of the period, after which the asset experiences a more extensive recovery.
Analysts think July will be the fifth month of this bearish phase. $BTC We may witness a significant recovery. While there are positive developments that could accelerate the recovery in the coming weeks, market experts have also identified factors that could hinder the recovery.
$BTC 5 month bear market ends
Strong seasonality in July could drive a recovery, but macro factors such as June’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could be a stumbling block, Bitfinex analysts said. Therefore, the end of a 5-6 month period is not enough to see a broad recovery in the economy. $BTC;macro and demand dynamics also need to be adjusted.
So far this month: $BTC has absorbed record corporate sales and weathered a storm of new geopolitical pressures. Last week, this asset came under attack from all directions. Although Strategies carried out its largest sale ever, the Fed continued to face fragmentation.
Despite the harsh environment, $BTC It managed to stay within the range of $61,300 to $64,700. The asset’s resilience was further supported by the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) ending its streak of outflows for the first time in nine weeks. These products recorded net inflows of $197.4 million for the first time in two months.
Although inflows into ETFs reflect a recovery in institutional investor demand, $BTC Still dependent on the macro environment, positive seasonality in July remains secondary.
ETFs break 9-week streak of outflows
From a more granular perspective, analysts believe that an ETF’s inflow pattern is more important than the total. Inflows increased on calm days and decreased when geopolitical tensions rose. This shows that institutional demands have not established a standard of durability.
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With that in mind, one key metric to keep an eye on is the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of ETF net inflows. This indicator tracks the main direction of institutional positioning and sustained trends in market demand. The SMA indicates that the monthly trend in ETF flows continues to be in net contraction, with daily redemptions reaching $88.9 million.
The next move in the SMA will depend on whether July seasonality is strong enough to override macro tensions in the coming weeks.
