Chinese crypto analyst Murphy said Bitcoin’s current recovery should be considered a “weak rebound” and said his near-term target range is between $64,000 and $68,000. The $70,000 level stands out as the upper bound for a short-term rebound in a bear market, the analyst said.
According to Murphy’s assessment, the current average cost for short-term Bitcoin investors is concentrated in the $64,000 to $68,000 range, especially for those who have held Bitcoin for less than one month or three months. Therefore, Bitcoin price will need to make repeated attempts to break out of this area.
Analysts said that whenever prices approach this cost range, some weak investors may turn unrealized losses into profits and sell. Murphy pointed out that this creates a cycle of “breakout, resistance, rebound, and then another breakout attempt,” which he argued is necessary for a bottom consensus to form.
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Murphy divided the expected level of recovery into three main levels. Therefore, the $64,000 and $68,000 levels are noted as important resistance levels related to the cost zone for short-term investors, while the $70,000 level corresponds to the realized price (STH-RP) for short-term investors.
On-chain analysis considers STH-RP to be the dividing line between bulls and bulls in terms of market sentiment. According to Murphy, all trend reversals typically begin with a sustained breakout above this line.
The analyst said that in his base case, he expects Bitcoin’s recovery to be weak and the price could rise to a range of $64,000 to $68,000. However, he noted that an unexpected jump above $70,000 could be seen as a strong rebound.
Options market data also supports the levels highlighted by analysts. Therefore, the fact that market makers are in gamma-positive positions near $62,000 could dampen volatility in this region through hedging trades. Following a potential upside breakout, the next positive gamma zone is in the $66,000 to $68,000 range, indicating that this area could also act as an important resistance line.
*This is not investment advice.
