Bitcoin (BTC) is back in territory that Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriol Investments, considers to be historically attractive for long-term investors.
“Right now, on average, miners are barely covering their costs. The most valuable opportunity in the long run has historically been between here and your electricity bill, which is currently $50,000,” Edwards said via a post on his X account.
As of this writing, June 9, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $62,890. This is slightly higher than the estimated average production cost for Capriole’s model, currently $62,650.
In the graph above, the top orange line shows the miner’s average production cost, and the bottom red line reflects the so-called “electricity cost”.
Estimated production cost How much does it cost to generate new units of Bitcoin through miningconsiders variables such as network difficulty, equipment efficiency, and energy consumption. When prices approach that level, miners’ profit margins decrease significantly.
Electricity cost, on the other hand, attempts to estimate the minimum value associated with the energy consumption required to generate Bitcoin. In previous cycles, Bitcoin entered the region between production costs and power costs during bear phases like 2015, 2018, and 2022.
These areas coincided with areas close to the market floor before Bitcoin started a new bullish cycle. However, it does not necessarily rebound immediately.
Other analysts are also observing signs of possible bearish exhaustion, albeit with more nuance. Financial market analyst Willy Wu said that Bitcoin may be “on the road to recovery” after what he sees as too long a decline. He further suggested that if capital flows deteriorate again, Bitcoin could face another decline before forming a firmer bottom.
Meanwhile, Spanish trader Pablo Gil expects interest in Bitcoin to deepen further. According to their analysis, whether BTC will repeat the correction pattern observed in previous cycles.
“Given the winter correction pattern of each cryptocurrency after halving throughout the lifetime of Bitcoin, the price could be 38,000 or 40,000 per BTC,” Gill said.
Along these lines, researcher CryptoVizArt has warned that the 30-day moving average of BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) net flows in the US has fallen to 2,450 BTC per day. According to a report by CriptoNoticias, this is the fastest pace of withdrawal of these financial products since their launch.
According to their analysis, this move reflects a sustained deterioration in institutional demand and is not just a temporary market reaction. Unless this trend reverses, ETFs will continue to act as a pressure factor on BTC prices.
Therefore, the Capriol indicator should not be interpreted as a prediction of a quick recovery. Rather, it serves as a valuation benchmark when Bitcoin approaches the economic cost of producing new currency again.
Meanwhile, the market remains focused on potential macroeconomic and geopolitical signals, including evolving tensions in the Middle East, traditional market trends, and the eventual return of institutional liquidity to Bitcoin ETFs.
(Tag translation) Analysis and research
