Bitcoin (BTC) has once again lost the $80,000 region amid increasingly deteriorating geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions.
At the time of publishing this article, May 19, 2026, the price of Bitcoin is $76,640.
This fall could reinvigorate the bear scenario and set a target near $45,000 again. These predictions were gaining momentum a few months ago, but then fell into oblivion as Bitcoin rose above $80,000…until now.
Those supporting the possibility of Bitcoin falling into the $45,000 region include Willy Wu, an on-chain analyst and liquidity indicator specialist, and No Limit Gaines, a trader and founder of Assembly, a private investment community focused on macroeconomic analysis, market research, and long-term portfolio construction.
Even Michael van de Poppe, one of the most bullish analysts in recent weeks, He changed his stance and began warning of new fall risks.
No Limit Gain brings back USD 40,000 scenario
The idea of deep waterfalls is not new. No Limit Gain Trader already said on December 16, 2025: BTC is likely to bottom near $40,000 this year. “Bitcoin has a habit of shaming people only when trust is strong,” he wrote at the time.
As he explained, Bitcoin cycles typically undergo a halving, an event scheduled to reduce the issuance of new coins by half every four years or so (latest in 2024).
For traders, after that story propelled the bullish phase; The market attracts leverage, late buying, and overconfidence. “Bitcoin moves on a four-year cycle and is driven by liquidity, leverage, and human behavior. It’s not driven by atmosphere or euphoria,” he said.
On the weekly chart accompanying his analysis, traders were predicting a decline towards the $40,000 area.
The black line drawn on the graph represents exactly that scenario. Deep capitulation followed by gradual recovery towards new all-time highs. “It will be a fresh start that will prepare us for the next big breakthrough,” he added.
Willy Wu had already warned about weakening the structure
The possibility of a prolonged bear market was also predicted several months ago by on-chain analyst Willy Wu, who specializes in liquidity and capital flow metrics.
In February 2026, Wu pointed to the liquidity of the spot market (direct buying and selling of Bitcoin) and futures market. (derivative contracts in which traders often use leverage to bet on the future price of an asset) showed an unusually simultaneous deterioration.
“I have never seen Bitcoin go up when both liquidity sources are bearish,” he said.
Mr. Wu believes that if macroeconomic conditions worsen, Around $45,000 could be a “classic bear market low.”
Bitcoin is in an important technical zone
Another more recent technical observation comes from Rajat Soni, CFA and financial analyst specializing in Bitcoin, who shared a chart showing the price of the asset emerging within an ascending channel on May 17, 2026. According to his paper, The system had been functioning as a support since March..
The price has fallen towards the bottom of that channel, near the $77,000 level, but the 200-day moving average is acting as resistance above the price. That is, it is an area where sellers historically tend to emerge and where it is difficult for prices to continue to rise.
Instead, the base of the channel acts as support, an area where demand typically occurs and prices tend to stop falling. Yes BTC Losing that structure could cause the market to accelerate its correction towards a lower support zone.
But Soni clarified: “I don’t think Bitcoin will ever reach $40,000 again, but if it did, I would happily buy as many Satoshis as I could.”
Van de Poppe changes his bullish stance
The recent deterioration in the market has also changed the position of Dutch trader Michael van de Poppe, who until a few days ago had predicted continued bullishness. “Bitcoin doesn’t look good. It’s far from Bitcoin,” he wrote on his X account on May 19. His publications are accompanied by price graphs for digital assets.
In this chart, Van de Poppe shows that BTC is Lost approximately $79,000 in critical support structure. The blue horizontal line isgap” is pending on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), the largest regulated financial derivatives market in the United States, where Bitcoin futures are also traded.
that “gap” represents the market gap that would occur if traditional markets remained closed over the weekend. Meanwhile, BTC will continue to operate on 24-hour exchanges.. Many traders believe that these gaps are related from a technical perspective because the price usually moves back later and “fills in” the gap.
You will see a green area marked with ” ” below.Important areas to focus on”, an important support area. Must be maintained to avoid downward acceleration. Analysts have warned that if BTC does not recover the $79,000 area quickly, it will “likely cascade.” Towards the sub-$65,000 level.
Furthermore, Van de Poppe highlighted that the macroeconomic situation continues to deteriorate, saying, “Oil prices continue to rise, with Brent crude currently trading at $107. Yields are rising again.” He added: “None of this is good for risk assets (including BTC).”
Market pressure resumes due to Iran conflict
As CriptoNoticias explained, Middle East war tensions are negatively impacting BTC. The Strait of Hormuz has remained effectively closed since February 28, when the United States and Israel attacked mainland Iran. It is an important sea route through which almost 20% of the world’s oil circulates.
A partial reduction in energy flows pushed up international oil prices and raised global inflation expectations.
This phenomenon has a direct impact on BTC and cryptocurrencies. If inflation remains high, there will be less room for central banks such as the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
With high interest rates The cost of money increases and the liquidity available for speculative investments decreases.
Ceasefire, bullish expectations for Bitcoin
In the short term, much of the bullish outlook hinges on whether the conflict between the US and Iran eventually deescalates.
A cease-fire or diplomatic solution to re-normalize navigation through the Strait of Hormuz This could ease pressure on oil and improve risk appetite in financial markets.
Additionally, investors continue to focus on Kevin Warsh’s first remarks as Fed president. Favorable signs regarding monetary policy or liquidity This could help stabilize the market after several consecutive days of bearish pressure on BTC.
