Bitcoin has risen nearly 30% since the US-Iran war began on February 28. That’s a gain that outperforms gold and the S&P 500 even as the conflict continues to roil global markets.
A week of potential catalysts.
Two events taking place in the U.S. Senate this week could add more fuel to this rally, according to 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen.
The first is Monday’s vote on the nomination of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. The second is Thursday’s markup session on the CLARITY Act in the Senate Banking Committee.
Thielen described the cryptocurrency bill as the most important piece of legislation that could bring long-awaited regulatory certainty for digital assets.
As for Wash, who is widely seen as more hawkish on inflation than current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Thielen said his confirmation would eliminate uncertainty rather than create it. He said both events will have a positive impact on Bitcoin.
Behind all of this is a conflict that shows no signs of ending anytime soon. The US-Iran war, which began after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US airstrike, has shaken financial markets over the past 10 weeks.
Source: Truth Social
One of the central flashpoints is the Strait of Hormuz, the gateway through which about a fifth of global oil trade passes.
After Trump’s latest statement, oil prices rose another 4.5% to $98.68 a barrel, putting pressure on already strained economic conditions.
Bitcoin fluctuations after Trump post
On Sunday, Trump took to Truth Social to reject Iran’s proposed opposition to the peace deal. Iran has been pushing for war reparations and the unfreezing of frozen financial assets, but Trump has flatly dismissed these claims.
Bitcoin initially slipped on the news, falling from $81,400 to $80,500 within 45 minutes of the post. But it didn’t stay still. Within three hours, the price rose back above $82,000, breaching $81,000 and settling near $82,350.
Data shows that over a four-hour period, short positions incurred losses of more than $60 million.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu added that the war will not end until Iran’s uranium production facilities are completely dismantled, further dimming the prospects for a short-term solution.
Hopes for an early end to the conflict fade
Peace talks were expected to advance by Wednesday. Trump’s rejection of Iran’s offer has eliminated that possibility for now.
The dispute, which began 10 weeks ago, showed that Bitcoin behaves differently from traditional assets. Bitcoin is rising even as geopolitical tensions intensify, oil prices soar, and ceasefire talks break down.
Featured image from The Leaflet, chart from TradingView
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