The Brazilian Stock Exchange B3 today launched six “event contracts” that include instruments related to Bitcoin price movements. The country’s first federally regulated prediction market comes three days after the National Monetary Council banned derivatives based on sports, political and entertainment events, while explicitly retaining the financial asset categories that B3 contracts fall under.
Important points:
- B3 will launch a six-event contract on April 27th, with three underlying assets including Bitcoin.
- CMN Resolution 5,298 bans sports and political forecasting derivatives starting May 4th.
- ANATEL blocked 28 prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi.
Brazil draws regulatory line between asset and event derivatives
B3’s six-event contracts are tied to movements in the Ibo Vespa index, the Brazilian real, and Bitcoin spot and mini futures, with prices capped at 100 Brazilian reals (approximately $19) and cash-settled only. The deal relies on the same mechanical structure used by US-based prediction market operators Calci and Polimarket, and is approved by Brazil’s securities regulator, Commissan de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM). Eligibility is limited to professional investors with assets of at least R$10 million (approximately $1.9 million) or who hold a CVM technical certification.
The announcement came three days after Brazil’s top monetary policy institution, Conselho Monetario Nacional (CMN), published Resolution CMN No. 5,298 on April 24. The resolution bans derivatives based on actual sporting events, online games, political, electoral, social, cultural, and entertainment events, while retaining derivatives related to economic and financial variables. The regulation will come into effect on May 4, and enforcement and supplementary regulations will be delegated to the CVM.
At a press conference on the same day, Minister of Finance Dario Durrigan and Minister of the House of Commons Miriam Belchiol announced that the Brazilian National Telecommunications Agency (ANATEL) had blocked access to 28 prediction market platforms operating without a license, and Regis Dudena, Secretary of the Prize and Wagering Secretariat (SPA), confirmed that further blocks would follow for platforms outside the CMN’s scope of authorization.
The resolution explicitly cites the Brazilian Federal Sports Betting Framework as the legal basis for distinguishing between licensed fixed-odds betting and event-based derivatives. The Instituto Brasileiro de Jogo Responsável, the trade association for licensed Brazilian operators, supported the resolution on the same day, arguing that it prevents “regulatory arbitrage” by foreign platforms seeking to operate as financial products rather than licensed gambling operators.
Founded in 2017 through the merger of BM&FBovespa and Cetip, B3 (Brasil, Bolsa, Vulcan) is Brazil’s main stock exchange and Latin America’s largest financial market infrastructure operator. B3 already offers Bitcoin futures contracts, launched in April 2024, alongside derivatives related to stocks, currencies, commodities and interest rates.
The launch marks Brazil’s first federally regulated prediction market with the company’s proprietary framework, arriving right on the new line. The deal forms part of a broader strategy to modernize the domestic derivatives market, with B3 already offering products related to central bank decisions in other jurisdictions, said Louis Massagan, B3’s executive vice president of products and clients.
Bloomberg reported earlier this month that the exchange separately revealed plans to launch a tokenization platform and stablecoin by the end of the year. The launch comes amid a global prediction market boom, with Calci entering Brazil in January through a partnership with brokerage firm XP International. With Polymarket, Kalshi and 26 other foreign platforms currently blocked at the network level, B3 is seeking to enter the government-sanctioned domestic market instead and reap tens of billions in notional value.
