There are tensions in Ethereum’s market structure that are worth addressing directly. The on-chain supply situation is probably the most constructive it’s been in a while. But on the chart, $ETH is still struggling to clear the resistance zone it has tested four times in six weeks. This tension is likely to be resolved in some way and will be resolved soon.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart
On daily charts, this story is well known. $ETH is at $2.3,000, the top of the descending channel has been broken, and the price is struggling with the 100-day moving average, which is located just below the key $2.4,000 resistance zone. The 200-day moving average (approximately $28,000) sits as a distant but important upper bound above this area and close to the $28,000 supply zone.
However, what has changed quietly is the RSI. The stock has now been in the mid-to-high $50s for almost two weeks, without the sharp rollover that characterized the previous failed breakout attempt in March.
This measure of sustained momentum, while modest, suggests that selling pressure at this level is gradually being absorbed rather than immediately overwhelming buyers. However, the daily structure is confirmed to be bullish. $ETH Close above $2.4,000 and defend it on retest.
$ETH/USDT 4 hour chart
The 4-hour chart shows a sharper uptrend line that has guided the price since the late March lows, with support currently around $230,000. $ETH is currently sitting directly on that trend line, retreating from the recent rejection at $24,000. These rejections were accompanied by a bearish RSI divergence visible on the chart, causing the price to rise slightly and the RSI to fall.
This divergence is now primarily reflected in a pullback to the trendline, with the RSI cooling into the low-to-mid 40s. Holding the trend line here would sustain a series of high lows and set up another attempt at $2.4,000, but losing it on a closing basis would put the $2,000 psychological support level into play, so the setup is binary. If this level also fails, a rapid fall towards the $1.8,000 base is very likely.
On-chain analysis
The Ethereum exchange’s Netflow chart tells an unexpectedly bullish story beneath the surface of volatile price movements. Since late January, a pattern of continued net outflows from exchanges has been dominant. Red bars on the chart indicate details $ETH People leave exchanges more often than enter them, with only occasional brief spikes in inflows.
What is particularly notable is that net outflows accelerated through April. in spite of $ETH Unable to break through $240,000, holders continue to withdraw $ETH From the fast pace of exchange. This behavior indicates an accumulation of conviction rather than opportunistic profit-taking.
Combined with foreign exchange reserves at multi-year lows, the net flow data paints a picture of a market in which ready-to-sell supply is steadily shrinking, even though prices haven’t yet reflected that. Historically, this type of supply compression is not forever reflected in prices.
