Ethereum ($ETH) is trading at $2,068, directly approaching the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $2,055. This token is being pulled in two directions simultaneously. This means that long-term holders secure profits from the rising cost base, while whale layer addresses absorb that supply to prevent the structure from collapsing.
The $2,000 level is the dividing line between these two forces. Which cohort wins will determine the next important move.
old $ETH holder on sale
The Glassnode HODL Waves chart, which tracks 3-5 year ownership cohorts, spans from December 26, 2025 to March 26, 2026. This band remained relatively stable between 14.2% and 14.4% of the total. $ETH Supply lasts from late December until January 20th, after which it begins to gradually decrease.
The decline accelerated sharply on the far right side of the chart. Between March 21 and March 26, the 3-5 year cohort fell from approximately 13.6% of supply to 12.8%. This is a decrease of nearly 0.8% in less than a week. This represents the second largest distribution event for this cohort seen in the 2026 data, after the decline recorded in late January.
Ethereum HODL Wave. Source: Glassnode
Holders of this cohort have obtained $ETH Between 2021 and 2023. This period includes both the 2021 bull market peak near $5,000 and the 2022 bear market low. Many of those who bought near the top are still underwater.
Those who saved during the bear market are now locking in big profits at current prices and are choosing to realize them. Their retreat is not a panic. It’s intentional profit-taking at a price level that we may not see again anytime soon.
Absorbed by whales Sold by small holders
Santiment address supply distribution map tracking three cohorts — addresses holding 10,000 to 100,000 $ETH (Blue), 100,000 to 1,000,000 $ETH (red), 1,000,000 to 10,000,000 $ETH (Yellow) — Indicates a clear change in ownership of the supply since March 25th.
The blue cohort sold approximately 370,000 units $ETH From March 25th to the time of writing. This sell-off did not meaningfully lower prices.
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Ethereum Whale Holdings. Source: Santiment
Instead, the red and yellow populations collectively absorbed that supply, and the two larger whale layers increased their balances in direct proportion to the departure of the blue population. At the current Ethereum price, 370,000 transfers $ETH This equates to approximately $765 million by changing hands from a mid-tier holder to the largest whale address on the network.
This dynamic (larger addresses absorb supply, smaller addresses offload) is likely to continue. $ETH Over $2,000. As long as this buying continues to absorb available supply on the seller side, it acts as a structural floor against further price declines.
$ETH Future price trends
The daily chart shows Ethereum price at $2,068, sitting at the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $2,055, with the red 50-day EMA moving down at $2,186 and acting as an immediate resistance. The Fibonacci retracement grid runs from the zero level at $1,750 to the 1.0 level at $3,045.
The 0.236 level at $2,055 has been a hot spot since early March. Every session I’ve tested it finished on or produced a recovery. The price of Ethereum is currently falling again, and the outcome of this test will determine its next destination. The $1,928 horizontal support below $2,055 is the next level on the chart and represents the last defense before the $1,838 floor comes into play.
$ETH Price analysis. Source: TradingView
A bullish deactivation requires a retrieval of the 0.382 level at $2,244. Above that, the 0.5 level at $2,397 is the next target, followed by the 0.618 level at $2,550.
A sustained move towards $2,550 will require whale accumulation to accelerate as selling pressure from 3-5 year holders eases. This is a scenario that only becomes more likely if the overall market stabilizes above $2,000.
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