Options traders in the Bitcoin market are currently pricing Bitcoin as more likely to remain below $66,000 until the end of April. This is a sign of how quickly sentiment has changed since Thursday.
Fear grips the options market
This change is evident in one key indicator: Bitcoin’s 30-day options delta skew rose as high as 15% on Friday, a sign that traders are paying a high premium for downside protection.
Under normal conditions, this figure is between -6% and 6%. According to data from derivatives platform Deribit, put options (bets on price declines) were trading at 0.0580 BTC, or about $3,786, for the April 24 contract with a strike price of $66,000.
This price means there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin will remain below that level until the end of the month. Since mid-January, fear has been the dominant force in Bitcoin options.
The widespread selling took a toll on Friday. Bitcoin fell 7.5% to $65,500 compared to $71,300 the previous day. That one move wiped out more than $200 million in leveraged long positions and rendered nearly all of the call options worthless ahead of $18.5 billion in monthly expiration.
Bitcoin option prices for April 24. Source: Deribit
The bear was in control. There was over $2 billion outstanding in put options with strike prices above $69,000, and 95% of call options had expired.
Some of the decline has little to do with price confidence, according to the report. Some traders did not want to hold on to Bitcoin exposure until the weekend, a common pattern with geopolitical risks rising and U.S. markets closing soon.
Source: Alternative.me
Oil price rises to $100, pressure on risky assets due to rising bond yields
Pressure on Bitcoin doesn’t just come from cryptocurrencies. West Texas Intermediate crude oil hit $100 a barrel on Friday. The surge is linked to rising tensions in the Middle East, with additional U.S. military spending expected to reach up to $200 billion.
This combination has raised inflation concerns and pushed investors into safer positions. The five-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4% from 3.70% just three weeks ago, a rapid rise by bond market standards. The S&P 500 index fell to its lowest point since September 2025.
Where Bitcoin Can Head
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by 20% so far this year. The gap is wider than can be explained by the broader macro environment alone.
The options market now has the answer to where Bitcoin will head this April, and that answer is no higher. With macro pressures building, policy tailwinds fading and traders reluctant to hold through the weekend, the path of least resistance is to the downside.
Whether Bitcoin holds $66,000 or falls below it may depend more on what happens in Washington and the Middle East before the end of the month than on the coin itself.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
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