Bitcoin miner supply remains tight compared to past cycles, but it is not tight enough to be called a true supply shock. New data from Axel Adler Jr.’s latest Bitcoin Morning Brief suggests that miners are still holding significant over-the-counter reserves, even as exchange-led selling pressure remains high.
Bitcoin miner flash mix signal
Adler’s central argument is based on two separate but related metrics. Tracks the 30-day moving average. $BTC Inflows from miners to exchanges act as a direct proxy for real selling pressure flowing into the market. the other measures the aggregate $BTC Analyze balances held in OTC addresses associated with miners to understand how much inventory can be sold outside of public order books.
Taken together, these charts show a market that is absorbing continued miner circulation, rather than one where hidden supply has suddenly been depleted. As Adler stated, “This is a mixed signal for the market. Although the hidden overhang is limited compared to past cycles, tactical pressures in the market channel have not yet been eliminated.”
That distinction is important. Lower OTC balances can be interpreted as constructive as it means miners have less excess inventory available for large off-exchange transactions. However, if the coins currently produced by miners are still being sent to exchanges at a high rate, immediate market pressures will remain.
Exchange inflow data will be at the center of that discussion. According to Adler, inflows to minor exchanges increased significantly after halving #4 compared to the early post-halving period, and this trend further accelerated from fall 2025 onwards. By 2026, the 30DMA will remain in what he described as an “elevated regime,” indicating that “a significant portion of newly mined supply will still be directed to the market, and current miner pressures are unlikely to be removed.”
While recent weeks have shown some easing from recent highs, Adler doesn’t see that as definitive. “In recent weeks, the charts have shown localized declines from recent peaks,” he wrote. “However, on the back of strong growth in recent months, this does not yet look like a confirmed downside reversal; rather, it is a respite within a still rising exchange inflow regime. To speak of a real reduction in miner pressures, we need a more sustained decline in the 30 DMA rather than a short-term oscillation within the current ascending zone.”
The situation on the OTC side is more nuanced. The OTC balance linked to the miner is currently approximately 152.6,000. $BTCsignificantly below the historical peak around 595K. $BTC In 2018, it was only slightly above the series lowest of approximately 146.9K. $BTC On a long-term basis, OTC reserves will remain compressed.
Still, Adler explicitly rejects the idea that reserves are virtually gone. “Current levels are near the lower end of the historical range, but it is an exaggeration to claim that the buffer is ‘almost completely depleted.’ It is over 150,000.” $BTC “OTC balances have remained within a relatively narrow range in recent months, and even saw a notable rise in February,” he wrote. This looks more like a regime of low but continuous accumulation of buffers rather than a final stage of complete depletion. ”
The composition is the key to this work. The report does not claim that the supply of miners is plentiful. The researchers argue that while the supply environment is not yet in a state of total scarcity, it is structurally tighter than in previous cycles. Adler said miners’ over-the-counter inventories are “significantly lower than in past cycles,” but reserves “have not disappeared.” Instead, “the market is no longer large enough to create the same hidden supply overhang that we saw before.”
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart on TradingView.com
